When we woke up on 24 February to images of a sweeping invasion of Ukrainian territory by the world’s second most powerful military, the overwhelming disparity of forces suggested that the Kremlin’s blitzkrieg would get what it wanted in a matter of days. A month later, although Putin assures the Russians that “everything is going according to plan,” the reality on the ground shows that the regular army and the people in arms, against all odds, are resisting so strongly that the invader’s advances are becoming slower and more costly.
By Daniel Sugasti
Although it is not possible to verify, the Ukrainian government claims to have shot down 16,100 Russian troops. NATO estimates that Russia suffered between 30,000 and 40,000 casualties, including between 7,000 and 15,000 dead [1]. On 21 March, the Putin-aligned Komsomolskaya Pravda published a figure of almost 10,000 Russian soldiers killed, but deleted the report within minutes. If this figure were accurate, it would mean that the Russian army lost, in less than a month, a number close to the 15,000 casualties suffered by the Soviet army in nine years of war in Afghanistan during the 80s [2]. But the latest official report from the Kremlin admits only 1,351 killed in action.
The truth is that the only major city the Russians effectively control is Kherson on the Black Sea. But even there, demonstrations by the local population against the occupiers occur almost daily. Nor has control of Kherson so far made it possible to make progress towards the strategic city of Odessa, where the population is preparing as best it can for the siege.
Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, Putin’s most important political and military target, has not only not been taken, but the Russian assault, announced as imminent on several occasions, has been halted on the outskirts of the city. Ukrainian forces are fighting in the towns of Irpin, Bucha and Makariv, an outpost of the capital, desperately trying to repel the enemy. The stalemated invaders resort to constant shelling of suburbs, making no distinction between military targets and civilian areas.
Something similar is happening in Kharkiv. The country’s second largest city, in the north, is holding out under intense Russian siege and shelling.
Mariupol, in the south-east, is perhaps the symbol of both Russian viciousness against the Ukrainian people and the desperate resistance of a nation fighting for its right to exist. Almost since the beginning of their war of conquest, Russian forces have maintained a siege on this city. At this stage, the fighting in Mariupol is street by street. The Russians, supported by Chechen troops and mercenaries who fought in Syria, claim to control half of the city. Moreover, the use of these foreign troops indicates the Kremlin’s concern about the impact Russian casualties could have on its own country.
The plight of civilians in Mariupol is heartbreaking. Whereas before the war the city had more than 400,000 inhabitants, it is now estimated that close to 100,000 civilians remain trapped in the Russian encirclement, without heating, drinking water, food, medicine or conditions to bury their dead in dignity, who are hastily thrown into mass graves or simply lie in the streets. The images of the destruction of the city and the desperate situation of the population of Mariupol, shelled by the Russians even during previously agreed evacuation periods, can be compared, without fear of exaggeration, to Nazi Germany’s siege of Leningrad between 1941 and 1944.
Faced with difficulties in making progress on the ground, due primarily to logistical problems of all kinds and the surprising Ukrainian resistance, Russia seems to be concentrating on all-out bombardment – by air, sea and land – of urban centres, including the use of modern supersonic missiles.
So far, it is estimated that more than 10 million people, one in four in Ukraine, have fled their homes. Half of Kyiv’s population has fled the city. Of the total number of displaced people, 3.7 million have taken refuge abroad since the outbreak of hostilities. The UN claims that this is the fastest exodus in Europe since World War II. Among the refugees, the majority are women and children. In fact, some 4.3 million Ukrainian children, i.e. half of the child population, have been forced to leave their homes. Ukraine reports that 135 children have been killed and 184 injured by Russian attacks. The savage shelling of the Mariupol maternity hospital and the attack on the Mariupol Drama Theatre, where the word “children” was written twice on the floor to warn that civilians were sheltering there, shows the barbarity of the Russian aggression against Ukraine. It is estimated that more than a thousand civilians were inside the theatre, of whom at least 300 people were killed.
Ukraine resists. Despite bombs, the siege of its cities and hardships of all kinds, the cities are not surrendering. A few days ago, Putin issued an ultimatum to Mariupol, but the Ukrainians rejected it out of hand. In Kyiv and other cities, in addition to heating and supply problems, the population is exhausted, crammed into bomb shelters where they cannot even sleep because of attacks or the terrible wailing of anti-aircraft sirens. But Ukraine is resisting.
On the diplomatic front, too, there is no progress. Putin made his intentions clearer by demanding Ukraine’s neutrality, i.e. non-membership of NATO; official acceptance of Russia’s annexation of Crimea; and recognition of the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk ‘republics’, occupied by pro-Russian separatist factions in 2014 and recognised by the Kremlin a few days before its offensive against Ukraine.
Zelenski’s deeply neoliberal and pro-imperialist government has so far not ceded Ukrainian territory. It has done so on NATO membership, admitting that Ukraine will not be one of its members. On the question of Russia’s claim to the Donbas, the massive mobilisation of the Ukrainian people against the invader puts pressure on the local government not to capitulate rudely, at least for now. Although at times Zelensky has signalled a willingness to make tougher concessions, he has covered his back, saying that any agreement will have to be endorsed by a referendum.
The Ukrainian people, who have shown they have the social strength to stand up to the second largest military power on the planet, have no reason to entrust their fate to the bourgeois and puppet government of US and EU imperialism headed by Zelensky.
Sooner or later, the government of the Ukrainian oligarchs will capitulate to Putin, probably yielding, in the same act, to the pressures of US and European imperialism.
The last month, on the other hand, has shown that imperialism’s hypocrisy knows no bounds. Beyond the rhetoric of “support” and “solidarity” towards Ukraine, the fact is that this oppressed nation, invaded on all sides, did not receive any weapons with the weight and technology capable of seriously confronting Russian superiority. Ukraine, despite insistent requests, did not receive a single fighter jet. On the contrary, much of the military equipment sent by the US and European governments, such as missile launchers and machine guns, is considered useless in these imperialist countries. That is why we consider our demand to all governments, imperialist or not, for an unconditional shipment of heavy weapons to Ukraine a central task at the moment. [3]
In this context, one month after the barbaric Russian invasion of Ukraine and the heroic resistance of the oppressed and attacked nation, it is vital to strengthen the campaign of effective solidarity with the Ukrainian people. The labour and mass movement, as well as any organisation claiming to be socialist and even democratic, must place itself on the front line of support for occupied Ukraine. Only by supporting the Ukrainian resistance can NATO, the USA, the EU and Zelensky’s own bourgeois government, which is incapable of taking the struggle against the Russian aggressor to the last consequences, be fought and exposed.
From this position we must turn to the call of Yuri Petrovich Samoilov, president of the Independent Trade Union of Miners of Krivoy Rog (Dniepropetrovsk region, Ukraine), who calls on the world working class to show solidarity with the resistance of his country, determined to win a “war for the independence of Ukraine.” [4] The trade unions, working-class parties and organisations must widely spread the Ukrainian miners’ call for internationalist help.
Fund-raising for urgent humanitarian aid must be organised. Talks must be organised to dispel confusion and explain the character of this war and how it affects the interests of the Ukrainian, Russian, European and world working class. In this sense, there is an unavoidable polemic with the Stalinist parties that support Putin and a wide range of pacifist organisations that oppose the war, but without saying that the end of the war and “peace” passes, concretely, through the defeat of Putin and by expressing explicit support for the Ukrainian resistance.
We must promote, as is happening in Europe and elsewhere in the world, mobilisations in support of the Ukrainian resistance. In these demonstrations, as we stated in our last declaration, it is necessary “…to demand that the governments (especially the imperialist countries) give the Ukrainian resistance arms and all the necessary materials (ammunition, food, medicine) directly and unconditionally. We are totally against the entry of NATO into the conflict and demand its dissolution. We also call to combat the measures to “strengthen” the armies that make it up (as the German government has just announced), because they are a threat to all the peoples worldwide. Instead, these governments must be demanded to hand over their weapons to the Ukrainian resistance directly and unconditionally.” [5]
It is not possible to predict how much longer the war against Ukraine will last. A strictly military analysis would indicate a Russian victory as the most likely scenario, mainly due to its superiority in all areas, albeit at a very high cost. Putin is in a hurry, because every day that passes without him being able to present a ‘victory’ adds to the growing indignation of the Russian population itself, subjected to the whims of an infamous dictatorship. Recent reports indicated that more than 10,000 people had been arrested for protesting against the war, a “crime” punishable by up to 15 years in prison in Russia.
But a Russian military victory would not necessarily mean the end of Ukrainian resistance to the foreign occupier. Much less would it erase the heroism shown so far by the Ukrainians, which has thrilled the world. The task, at this moment, inside and outside Ukraine is to close ranks in the face of Putin’s war of conquest against an oppressed and weaker nation. Ukraine is resisting a month after being invaded. This is what is important and a strong working-class, internationalist campaign of solidarity with the Ukrainian people must be based on this fact.
Workers of the world, unite in support of the Ukrainian resistance!
Notes:
[1] https://internationalsocialistleague.net/interview-with-ukrainian-miners-leader/
[2] Dockers at UK refinery refuse to unload Russian oil | Shipping industry | The Guardian
[3] See: Miles de personas se manifiestan en varias ciudades europeas en apoyo a Ucrania (yahoo.com)
