At the head of a government that lasted 89 days, Barnier was the shortest serving Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic. Barnier’s downfall comes as no surprise given the enormous political instability in France, which is itself linked to a deep economic and social crisis, as we have written about in previous articles.
By Michaël Lenoir, IWL sympathy group in France
A predictable fall, but perhaps faster than expected
What surprised some was that the knife of censorship fell so quickly. It was the far-right National Rally (RN) that held the key and decided – faster than many had imagined – to veto the social security budget (PLFSS). Undoubtedly, the same could have happened with the other major text being debated in Parliament, the General State Budget 2025. On Monday, December 2, before the National Assembly, Michel Barnier, unable to present a PLFSS acceptable to the majority of deputies, decided to invoke Article 49.3 of the Constitution. This undemocratic procedure was used last year to impose the hated pension reform without a vote. This time, 49.3 would have allowed the PLFSS to be passed without a vote… if the no-confidence vote had not taken place. But since July, the parliament is even more fragmented than last year, and the RN has decided to censure Barnier for this text. The far-right party presented its own motion of no confidence, but had also announced that it would vote in favor of the New Popular Front’s (NFP) motion of no confidence, which it did on Wednesday, December 4. Thus, there were 331 votes in favor of the no-confidence motion, more than enough – 288 would have sufficed – to bring down the government.
The most important question here is why the RN decided to put forward no-confidence vote. At the last minute, Barnier had given in to many of the RN’s demands, notably with a significant reduction in the basket of care covered by the State Medical Assistance Scheme (AME), which allows undocumented migrants access to health care; the abandonment of the idea of increasing the tax on electricity; and the backtracking on the removal of medicines from the 2025 list. Despite all this, Marine Le Pen, who kept demanding more from Barnier, thought that the government had “ended the discussion”, although Matignon kept saying that he was “open to dialogue”. In reality, what seems to have prevailed is the pressure from the RN base for the party to put forward a no-confidence vote on Barnier (61% of RN voters wanted this at the end of November[1]). This mostly popular base hates the “establishment”, Macrony and all those who serve it; but it is also attacked in its material interests by neoliberal policies such as Barnier’s. In order not to appear too complacent with the head of a government that attacks the popular classes, the RN had to reaffirm its defense of the interests of “the French”, also in terms of pensions and purchasing power, and therefore felt obliged to vote in favor of the motion of no confidence, without which the leadership of this party could have disappointed its popular social base. It is also possible that the RN’s misadventure with the trial of its European parliamentary assistants and the disqualification of Marine Le Pen have led the far-right party to distance itself somewhat from the strategy of “de-demonization” and parliamentary normalization that has worked so well for it.
Good news for the workers
The fall of this government is good news in itself, because it was a bitter enemy of our class: a clearly right-wing government that united Macronism and the right-wing Republican party (LR) around a “common base”, a violently neoliberal and authoritarian team in which technocracy and incompetence coexisted, with a prime minister officially chosen by Macron because he was a priori more favored by the RN than other candidates, but who was also a hostage of the far right.
Its budgetary projects for public finances and the social security system were antisocial disasters. They have been discarded, although another government may take up at least some of them in the future. But for the time being, and contrary to what Barnier had concocted for us, on January 1 pensions will continue to be indexed to inflation, and there will be no further repression of health care. And since the state budget for 2025 cannot be voted on until the end of 2024, it will be the 2024 budget – already odious, but without the massive destruction of jobs and additional public services of the Barnier project – that will continue to be implemented next year. The fear of a US-style “shutdown”, in which federal civil servants are not paid because there is no parliamentary agreement on the budget, is not a problem in France, despite the intimidation and fears raised by the “common base” politicians and their media watchdogs.
Instability that worries foreign capital and an EU in crisis
It should also be noted that this greater political instability and its immediate economic consequences (lack of a budget, increase in public deficit) are being shown to the EU and the world at a time when the decline of European capitalism, and of French capitalism in particular, is becoming an object of concern and reflection among the thinkers of the ruling class. French imperialism is suffering setbacks again and again, especially in Africa, especially in the face of its Chinese and Russian competitors. But it is also the whole EU project that is on the rocks, a union squeezed between its U.S. and Chinese competitors, influenced by Putin’s warmongering policies, and with German capitalism in real trouble, with massive layoffs and social struggles regaining ground, while new (early) elections are being held with the (far-right) AfD looking increasingly threatening.
So the fall of the fragile Barnier house is in itself gratifying from our point of view, but in the end everything will depend on what is set in motion, especially in our social field. And this new political crisis worries the defenders of the capitalist order, especially the financial order, in the EU and elsewhere. The rating agency Moody’s considers that Barnier’s fall “reduces the likelihood of fiscal consolidation”[2]. Fitch warns along the same lines. The European bourgeois press also expresses its concern about the financial situation and the unknown political situation that is taking shape in France. In Germany, bourgeois commentators are deeply concerned, not only because the country is in bad shape, but also because France (its largest trading partner) might not be able to restore stability in the short term[3]. The Wall Street Journal even wonders if the country is turning into “Greece on the Seine”[4].
What is the political outlook in France?
In the very short term, there is no chance that new elections will be organized. According to the constitution, the president cannot dissolve the assembly until one year after the July 7 runoff. The earliest new parliamentary elections that could be held would be in the summer of 2025, on July 13.
In the small world of party politics, and even within Macronism, voices are being raised expressing weariness with the instability and considering the possibility of Macron resigning before 2027[5] or even running for the next presidential election, as Macron’s former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe did just before Barnier was appointed to Matignon. The LFI proposes Macron’s resignation and early presidential elections, but remains isolated in this approach. Since the impeachment procedure initiated by the Insoumis (France Unbowed (LFI)) expired in October and was not examined by the parliament, the only option left is Macron’s resignation. He can leave the Elysée, but there is no constitutional obligation to do so. Moreover, the current president has shown his determination to continue, in broad terms, the brutal neoliberal policies pursued since his first term. This continuation was Barnier’s mission, supposedly more sustainable than other solutions in the more complicated political context that has prevailed since July. In fact, the presidential monarch shows few signs of leaving. Moreover, if he did, his successor would be forced to live with the divided National Assembly elected on June 30 and July 7.
Macron is therefore looking for a new prime minister who will last at least until the summer of 2025. It is very unlikely that he will rely on an NFP government led by Lucie Castets and based on this coalition, since he prefers to continue to serve the ultra-rich and big business as much as possible, and also because he already rejected it this summer. His main strategy today is to try to enlarge the “central bloc” in parliament by bringing together the LR and the most pro-Macron elements of the NFP. In this way, he intends to once again break up the NFP, isolate the LFI and secure the favor of the most right-wing elements of this front, starting with the Socialist Party (PS). In this respect, nothing is certain at the time of writing, but Macron has already won points, unlike his attempts to take them away during the summer.
Negotiations have begun and the NFP is falling apart
But on November 30, Libération ran the headline “Presidential election: Marine Tondelier and Lucie Castets take turns defending a ‘joint candidacy’ of the left”, implicitly insisting on the prospect of the NFP continuing until the presidential election. Both the PS candidate for Matignon last summer and the Ecologist Party leader followed this line, while trying to combat the candidacy announced by Mélenchon for an early presidential election.
A few days and a majority motion of no confidence later, a completely different, more dissonant tone can be heard. It is true that the differences between the LFI and the Socialist Party or the Ecologists have been publicly expressed for some time. But Barnier’s resignation, following a vote of no confidence by all but one Socialist deputy, has deepened the rifts to the point where the NFP’s very existence is at stake.
A few hours before the censure, Yannick Jadot, Ecologist senator for Paris and former presidential candidate, declared: “We must open up the possibility of a transitional republican pact between the NFP and the central bloc”[6]. However, the NFP program did not include such a “republican front”, not even a transitional one, and if Macron finally chose Barnier, it was because he had not been able to dynamite the foundations of the NFP with such a perspective last summer. As for Marine Tondelier, on December 6 she regretted not having been invited by Macron, unlike the PS, and also regretted that the president did not want to talk about “social justice and ecology”[7]. What a discovery! And she is also in favor of a “republican front” (i.e. an agreement with Macron and the LR), while claiming to be faithful to the “promises” of the NFP… How can one believe such nonsense?
The PS is also more than willing to go hand in hand with Macron. In fact, it is from this party that Macronism wanted to snatch the NFP. Olivier Faure, its first secretary, was invited by Macron and proposed a “non-censorship agreement” and a “non-aggression pact”, saying he was ready to negotiate on all issues, including pension reform! To put it bluntly, the PS defends the idea of Macron appointing a “left” prime minister for a government of limited duration, but governing with the “central bloc” (Macronie and LR), i.e. a government implementing right-wing policies.
In the French Communist Party (PCF) the change is also noticeable. The leader of its parliamentary group, André Chassaigne, declared: “We need a left government. A left-wing prime minister who draws on the bases of the New Popular Front and who is capable of gathering majorities in the Chamber. I believe it is possible to draw up a new budget and pass laws.”[8] A joint budget with Macron and the right? But on what basis? If we do not remain under the illusion that the Macronists and the right are willing to vote for a Keynesian budget in line with the NFP program, this can only lead to a capitulation to the demands of French and international capital. This clearly means abandoning the already very moderate program of the NFP in order to save Macron and restore the stability of the Fifth Republic. This is what the PS, the Ecologists and the PCF are now ready to do.
Nothing good can come out of the current negotiations
Either way, if this approach continues, it can only mean the death of the NFP. LFI would like to preserve this coalition by rejecting this capitulation. But the LFI continues to limit itself essentially to declarations and institutional actions, without betting on the powerful democratic and mass mobilization that is needed. Because it is not with purely electoral and institutional proposals (such as early presidential elections) that our class will be able to escape both the open and rapid betrayal of a part of the left and the increasingly brutal tyranny of capital and big business. In any case, if the NFP explodes, Macron will have succeeded in his political coup by isolating the LFI from its NFP partners, who will thus be swallowed up.
If this is occurs, we can deduce that one of the novelties of the NFP in relation to the previous popular fronts is that the front built last June will finally self-deflate even before entering the government!
This has not yet happened, in spite of all the disgusting evasions, not least because of the reluctance of part of the right wing to cooperate with the left parties. Bruno Retailleau, the now resigned Minister of the Interior, is at the head of the most hostile LR and is openly against an alliance with the left, even without the LFI[9].
We can also imagine that in this political “solution” at the top, Bernard Cazeneuve, a Hollande-Valls-style “socialist” whom Macron approached this summer for Matignon, could act as a liaison between Macron and the “left” in disarray. His name, among others, has begun to circulate again.
These opaque negotiations will continue for at least a few days, but what is certain is that Barnier’s successor, whatever his political label, will have the mission to continue the attacks against our class, because that is precisely what is demanded by the noxious class in power, of which Macron is the most zealous servant, and which is determined to make us pay for the crisis of its system.
We can’t rely on the bourgeois institutions, only on our struggle and our organization
Will the political crisis in which we find ourselves succeed in opening the eyes of as many people as possible to the trapped nature of institutional political solutions? It is true that the PS, the Greens and the PCF may be a little more discredited by their cowardice after their current loyalty to Macron. But in the eyes of many, the LFI seems to continue to embody a left politics that is at once “radical” and institutional. In our view, as long as it remains in the hands of the political forces in power, a fortiori under the leadership of the current occupant of the Elysée, the future does not look good for our class. Certainly, the fall of Macron could be an even more joyful and promising event than that of Barnier. But unlike the various reformists, and especially the LFI, we believe that the only way to achieve this is for our class to take its destiny into its own hands, to reach a higher level of organization and, through a powerful mobilization that stops the country in its tracks, to succeed in ousting Macron from power. Taking into account what the experiences of recent social struggles have shown, from the Yellow Vests to the pension reform, it seems to us that a key piece of this road is the general strike. But this perspective continues to face serious obstacles.
What’s the connection between social desperation and the revival of struggles?
Although the social movement has been rather muted, at least since late spring, during the summer and in September, it seems to have revived since November. The legitimate anger of the popular classes is once again expressing itself more forcefully. The number of strikes is increasing and the motives are more numerous: in addition to the wage question, they include the struggle against the numerous dismissals and redundancy plans and the defense of the public services destroyed by austerity measures.
On December 5, the day after the motion of no confidence, there were massive strikes and demonstrations throughout the country in the three public services – state, municipal and hospital – as well as in the energy sector (electricity and gas). Teachers have been particularly active in strikes and demonstrations. Recently, there has been an upsurge of struggles in local public services, with municipalities and departments being devastated by austerity measures. There has also been a resurgence of strikes in the hospital and health sector in recent months.
But private sector workers are also struggling, often with their backs to the wall, facing hundreds of layoff plans, as at Michelin and Auchan. The CGT is planning a national strike day in this sector on December 12. But as of December 11, the SNCF in particular has declared an indefinite strike against the privatization of freight transport, which is as socially unjust as it is environmentally destructive. Unfortunately, two of the four SNCF unions (UNSA and CFDT) that were initially in favor of the strike have withdrawn from the call, and only the CGT Cheminots and Sud Rail (Solidaires) are maintaining their call.
But the bureaucratic domination of the central unions continues to wreak havoc. In particular, in November-and this is the predominant pattern in December-we saw a multiplication of calls for strike days, sector by sector.
As we can see, the union leaderships are not changing their strategy, even if it is a losing one: on the one hand, the social dialogue with the government and the bosses continues to dominate, and on the other hand, the fragmentation of the struggles and isolated days of action without prospects, such as the strike of October 1, which was relatively poorly attended.
There are voices calling for a real indefinite strike in which everyone acts together. This is the only way to make Macron and the bourgeoisie give in. These voices must be transmitted and amplified, and more and more trade unions, local unions, etc. must stand up against the systematically losing strategy of the trade union leaderships.
For our part, we believe that the only way to oust Macron, while putting an end to the anti-democratic institutions of the Fifth Republic and imposing the emergency measures our class needs, is to fight for a combination of direct mass mobilization, self-organization and the fight for class independence. The key to the current political crisis lies in the advance of the workers and youth in building a new revolutionary leadership to confront the reactionary attacks and policies, wherever they come from. This requires, first of all, a break with the bourgeois parties of the NFP, which are now willing to collaborate with Macron and the right wing.
Sources
[1] https://www.lesechos.fr/politique-societe/politique/pourquoi-marine-le-pen-fait-le-choix-de-la-censure-2135325
[2] https://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/la-chute-du-gouvernement-barnier-reduit-la-probabilite-d-une-consolidation-des-finances-publiques-juge-moody-s-20241205
[3] https://www.lesechos.fr/politique-societe/gouvernement/censure-un-dangereux-saut-dans-le-vide-qui-inquiete-la-presse-europeenne-2135926
[4] https://www.lesechos.fr/monde/europe/pourquoi-lallemagne-sinquiete-de-la-chute-du-gouvernement-barnier-2135905
[5] Jean-François Copé, mayor (LR) of Meaux (Seine-et-Marne): “His resignation is the only solution to the problem he himself has created”. https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/politique/021224/ca-ne-peut-pas-durer-jusqu-en-2027-la-demission-de-macron-gagne-les-esprits
[6] https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/yannick-jadot-nous-devons-ouvrir-la-possibilite-d-un-pacte-republicain-transitoire-entre-le-nfp-et-le-bloc-central-20241204
[7] https://information.tv5monde.com/international/tondelier-regrette-que-la-macronie-ne-veuille-pas-parler-ecologie-et-justice-sociale
[8] https://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/parlement-francais/assemblee-nationale/motions-de-censure-il-faut-un-premier-ministre-de-gauche-declare-le-communiste-andre-chassaigne_6936020.html
[9] https://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/retailleau-oppose-au-compromis-avec-la-gauche-les-rebelles-syriens-se-rapprochent-de-damas-fermeture-de-marineland-les-3-infos-a-retenir-a-la-mi-journee-20241206#nouveau-gouvernement-la-droite-ne-pourra-faire-aucun-compromis-avec-la-gauche-affirme-bruno-retailleau
