A previous article took stock of the challenges following the dissolution of parliament and of the major trends expected for the snap elections that Macron prepared for us on the evening of June 9. More recently, we wanted to give the most accurate and faithful picture possible of the legislative campaign of the National Rally (RN) and of the dynamics it has triggered. It is now a question of understanding the evolution of the French political landscape that has taken place during the last four weeks in order to better perceive the trends in the period that opens after the second round of these elections.
By IWL France Sympathizers Group
Let us briefly recall the main consequences of Macron’s defeat in the European elections and of the dissolution of the National Assembly decided on the spot by Macron: deep weakening of his political camp; unprecedented rise of the RN; fracture and major crisis of the traditional right, part of it opting for the alliance with RN; unification of the left with the constitution of the New Popular Front (NFP).
The first round and its main lessons
Parties and coalitions votes, % registered, % votes cast, seats obtained
RN + LR “Ciotti” 10 628507 21.54% 33.15% 38
PFN 8,974,566 18.19% 27.99% 32
Together (Macron coalition) 6,425,217 13.02% 20.04% 2
LR (“non-Ciotti”) 2,104,918 4.27% 6.57% 1
various rights 1,172,548 2.38% 3.66% 2
Miscellaneous left 491,069 1.00% 1.53% 0
Center various 391 408 0.79% 1.22% 0
More to the left 367,158 0.74% 1.15% 0
Reconquista 240,006 0.49% 0.75% 0
Others 1,202,878 2.44% 3.75% 1
Source: From the table provided by the Ministry of the Interior (1). We have grouped the results provided by the ministry to gather the RN and LR fraction that followed Eric Ciotti in his alliance with RN. The ministry also counted a far-right candidate without the RN label and not LR (The Republicans). This is Eddy Casterman, close to Marion Maréchal and elected in Aisne, who will sit with the RN. In this section we find very diverse categories: regionalists, candidates not allied to Horizons (right), the PS (Socialist Party), the Radical Left, the PCF (Communist Party of France), the LFI (France Unbowed) not invested by the leadership, sovereigntists, various members of the Ecologist party and other rather unclassifiable applications.
The results of the first round essentially confirmed the polls: a strong advance of the RN, a hard defeat of Macron and insufficient dynamics of the NFP which prevents it from reversing the predominance of the RN and its allies. A fact that was not really expected from this election is that the high turnout, close to that of a presidential election (66.71%) did not harm the RN, which seems to have partly benefited from it.
Big advantage for the RN
It seems that the parliament will be dominated by three large political blocs: the one surrounding the RN (with the pro-Ciotti LR and possibly others); the one grouped in the NFP, which we discussed in a previous article; and the “Together!” “of the former presidential majority, which brings together the Renaissance (Macron’s party), Modem and Horizons parties.
This first round was a clear victory for the RN which, for the first time in its history, took first place in a national legislative election. Révolution Permanente thus observes the historical evolution of the lepénist party: “Under Sarkozy and Hollande, the far-right party gained almost ten points. Under Macron, it gained twenty, including more than fifteen in the last two years. On the night of the first round, the central question was whether the far-right bloc would obtain an absolute majority. It was the RN bloc that managed to elect the largest number of deputies in the first round (39 in total). The RN and its allies were ahead in more than half of the 577 electoral districts (exactly 297 for the RN against 110 in 2022, and against 155 for the NFP, which came second). Other measures of this increase: with its more than 10.6 million votes, the RN-Ciotti set recorded 2.5 times more votes than the RN in the 2022 legislative elections; Compared to the 2022 presidential elections, the RN alone gets better results than Marine Le Pen two years ago (9,377,397 votes against 8,133,828), and the difference approaches 2.5 million (+30%) if the “ Ciottist ” votes are included.
The RN vote affected regions where it was previously much weaker. This is especially the case in Brittany, a generally socialist and then Macronist region, where the RN obtained 27.76%, just behind the NFP and the presidential camp. In a region where it had never been able to participate in a second round of legislative elections, the RN triumphed in almost all the electoral districts. There, as elsewhere, its growth is clear in rural areas. In the southwest, the RN’s electoral gain is also clear, in traditionally socialist areas. In several of these departments, the RN qualified for the second round, sometimes under favorable conditions.
The RN is making progress in all categories of the population. The Lepenist party is consolidating its roots in socio-professional circles where it was already strong, while advancing in sectors where it remained weak. According to an OpinionWay survey for Les Echos, the RN is making progress among the unemployed (40%), among people without a baccalaureate (48%) and among workers (53%). But it is also growing among retirees (largely behind Macron so far), as well as among executives and graduates. The study notes that the RN “now attracts both men (34% of voters) and women (32%), 18-24 year olds (33%) and seniors (39% of 50-64 year olds.), the active (35%) and the unemployed (40%).
Finally, the RN has crushed its most direct competitors, starting with Reconquête, Eric Zemmour’s party. It did not elect any deputy in 2022, and in the 330 constituencies in which it was present this time it only obtained 0.7%. Will this party survive? This comes after the failure of the negotiations between RN and this formation that snatched the elected officials of the European Parliament on June 9 and RN. Marine Le Pen’s niece (Marion Maréchal) seems to have played the card of the RN-Reconquest alliance, against Zemmour, who wanted to make his difference heard. We also wonder about the political future of the former ally of Marine Le Pen in the 2017 presidential election, the sovereigntist Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, deputy for Essonne since 1997 and whose re-election was very uncertain at the end of this first round.
Insufficient dynamics of the NFP
The union of the left within the NFP allowed them to advance a little with respect to 2022, but the dynamics was not enough to stop the advance of the RN. With almost 28% and 9 million votes, the NFP is behind the RN bloc, and had 32 deputies elected in the first round, including national figures such as Olivier Faure (first secretary of the PS), Sandrine Rousseau (ecologial deputy in Paris), Eric Coquerel and Clémentine Autain (LFI in Seine Saint Denis).
The NFP made a breakthrough in Paris, where it came first in 13 of the 18 electoral districts, and elected nine deputies in the first round, which clearly allowed the capital to resist the RN wave. Overall, the NFP has performed well in Ile-de-France, with a strong position in Val d’Oise (with two elected officials); it is advancing in Essonne and seems on track to win the second-round battles in Seine-Saint-Denis.
At the national level, the dynamics are much more limited. It seems that part of the left and right electorate did not want to vote for the NFP, essentially because of a rejection of the LFI. The LFI electorate also seems to have been less mobilized than in 2022. The divergence of projects among the NFP components was reflected despite the approved agreement, limiting the vote in its favor. This is compounded by a strong difference in votes for the NFP according to the type of territory: it is strong in Paris and the Paris region, and more widely in highly urbanized areas and suburbs, but rarely in rural areas (except in Limousin and other exceptions). In rural or peri-urban areas, the NFP is struggling. Overall, the NFP is strengthening in most of its strongholds, but is not winning over new fractions of the electorate.
Within the NFP, the rebalancing of forces seems to be confirmed after the European elections. The PS vote has regained weight, largely to the detriment of the LFI. The elimination in the first round of the secretary general of the PCF, Fabien Roussel, by an RN candidate from the North is a serious blow to him. But the PC won two reelections in the first round, notably that of Elsa Faucillon in Hauts-de-Seine with 65% of the vote.
Big defeat for Macron
Macron’s bid for dissolution was a resounding failure: instead of breathing new life and elected representatives into his camp, the president inflicted a test on himself in which he only came third, with 20.04% of the vote and only two re-elections in the first round.
The Macronist decline is very massive, even if the presidential camp resists in some departments, against the RN and the NFP. This is the case of the favored territories west of Paris: Hauts-de-Seine, where a Macronist is elected in the first round, or Yvelines, where others, among the best known of Macron’s followers, are well placed for the second round. Outside the Paris region, Macronism is doing well against the momentum of the RN in some departments such as Ille-et-Vilaine, Mayenne or Aveyron.
The period between the two rounds and the question of the withdrawal of candidacies
The French electoral system, by constituency, uninominal in two rounds, necessarily leads to the National Assembly being a distorted representation of the electorate. We still see it today, with an RN bloc that obtained the highest scores in the first round, but only obtained the third parliamentary representation after the second round.
The question of triangular and quadrangulars
Especially for our readers abroad, we should clarify the rules for moving from the first to the second round. A candidate is qualified for the second round of the legislative elections if he/she obtained the votes of at least 12.5% of the registered voters. With an abstention of 50%, this corresponds to 25% of the votes cast. But when the turnout is higher, of the order of two thirds as on June 30, we understand that the number of candidates qualified for the second round increases mechanically, because it is enough for a candidate to have gathered (on average) 18.75% of the votes cast in the first round in his constituency to be able to participate in the second round. In fact, on the night of the first round, Le Figaro counted 306 potentially triangular elections and one quadrangular election (compared to 190 duels), whereas in 2022, a year of much higher abstention, only 7 triangular elections had been held. However, a three-way or four-way vote is even more uncertain than a duel between two candidates. The question on the evening of June 30 was: who would withdraw from the contest? Generally, it is the third-place candidates who withdraw, with more or less precise voting instructions to ensure the candidate’s defeat. He or she came in first or second. So potentially the three blocs (RN, Macronie and NFP) could still face each other in the runoff in most constituencies, the other cases being much rarer. It is therefore important to look at what happened between the two rounds on this issue, noting at the same time that there are three levels of implementation of a withdrawal policy; withdrawal of candidacies, or appeal or vote: that of the instructions to staff; that of the candidates in their constituency, who may resist these instructions or even reject them; that of the electorate, which always follows only partially – but in varying proportions depending on the election – the instructions of the political leaders.
Withdrawals, voting instructions and attempts at division
The participation of unions and their leaders was remarkable in an election of this type, as they votes in first round in favor of the NFP, but more generally against the RN. After the first round, union positions, both common and individual, multiplied. Since July 1, an inter-union declaration bringing together the CFDT, the CGT, the UNSA, the FSU and Solidaires affirmed: “Nothing is decided”, calling for “a democratic, social and republican breakthrough at the ballot box.” Sophie Binet (CGT) called for a fight against the “ni-ni” (neither left nor RN), who are “a mortal danger for our Republic.” For Marylise Léon (CFDT), against RN, “no political calculation holds. The worst-ranked candidates, whoever they are, must withdraw to defeat the extreme right candidates in the second round”. Solidaires called for “the unity of the trade union and associative forces to prevent the extreme right from governing”. Laurent Escure (UNSA), faced with the “danger of an RN majority,” also demanded the “ republican withdrawal.” And the Confédération Paysanne said it was “very concerned” to see the RN so close to power.
Within the NFP, all the staff quickly gave instructions to withdraw the third place candidates, at least in the event that the election of an RN Deputy was possible, since the evening of June 30. This even led, in particular, to the withdrawal of NFP candidates in constituencies where Macronist candidates were represented by sadly emblematic figures: Gérald Darmanin, Minister of the Interior in the North; Elisabeth Borne, former Prime Minister in charge of imposing the pension reform! For the LR faction opposed to Eric Ciotti, there was also clarity: no withdrawal and no call to vote for the left.
On the other hand, it was cacophony that predominated among the presidential candidates. There were some cases of quick retreats in favor of the left – even LFI – to defeat the RN. But among Macronist tenors, a whole range of nuances governed the instructions for the runoff, and the “Republican retreat” was by no means systematic. Some Macronists have remained in triangular positions, against central instructions; others ended up yielding to pressure from the general staff. In no case have the Macronist leaders clearly called for a vote for the entire NFP to defeat the RN. Not surprising, after demonizing the united left as much or more than RN. In most cases, a distinction was made between the LFI – often portrayed as “non-Republican” and “anti-Semitic” for months – and the other components of the NFP. For many, such as former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, it is an instruction of “neither-nor” against “the extremes”: neither LFI, nor RN. The Minister of Economy, Bruno Le Maire, also rejected both, claiming that they would be “two Frexit in disguise.” Many Macronists claim a case-by-case logic, like Yaël Braun-Pivet, former president of the Assembly, who asks not to give votes to the RN but wants to distinguish between the candidates of the LFI, considering that “they are not all the same .” In the end, there remained 14 Macronist candidates who, faced with the call to block RN, chose to remain in a third position.
In fact, all these nuances within the presidential camp not only reflect disagreements between individuals, but also conceal what emerged more clearly in the last days before the second round: an attempt, particularly orchestrated by Attal, to divide the NFP in order to succeed in governing with its most right-wing sectors. To do so, it is best not to offend the whole of the left. Hence his more moderate rhetoric than before the first round. This undertaking, which would probably destroy the NFP, produced seductive effects even before the second round. Marine Tondelier, leader of the Ecologists, has publicly considered several times a common government with Macronism declaring in particular: “there will be no good solution. We will find the least bad and the best for France. But yes, we must show ourselves ready to govern.” Hollande also left the door open to such a coalition government, which he said should be based on “minimum promises, at least for a year, for the country to be governed.”
The surprising verdict of the second round
The results announced on the evening of July 7 were not expected. Certainly, the last polls between the two rounds predicted a lack of absolute majority and revealed a decrease in seats for RN compared to the initial projections, but they indicated a first place in seats for RN and this decrease was perceived as a consequence of the withdrawals. But what finally happened at the polls had not been predicted: a first place awarded to the NFP, a Macronist camp that came in second with an unexpected number of elected officials, and the RN bloc that was relegated to third place in parliament.
The transformation of votes into seats
If the first round represented a clear victory for the RN, the second round was a setback for it, which could not convert the attempt. Here you have the image of the new Assembly.
Source: Ministry of the Interior. Infographics Le Figaro (2).
On the part of the NFP, the 184 elected officials are divided into 78 LFI, 69 PS, 28 Ecologists and 9 PC. At least part of the “miscellaneous left” and the “regionalists” (among the “various”) could join them. The 166 elected officials of the Macronist camp are divided into 99 Renaissance, 33 Modem, 26 Horizon and 9 “other big ones.” The right (LR and several right-wingers) managed to salvage their campaign with 65 elected officials, while the RN limits to 143 deputies, including the 17 of LR-Ciotti.
How can we explain this change – so fast – between the two rounds? First of all, many local elections were very close and dozens of deputies were elected or re-elected with a few hundred votes in advance, or even less. It also appears that the anti-RN recalls worked well. No doubt a majority of left-wing voters voted for Macronism or LR, a significant number of right-wing or centrist voters also voted left. But it seems clear that the recalls favored Macronism more than the left, in particular because the instructions from the left were clearer and because the left electorate voted more for LR or the Macronist right than voters of these sensibilities did not vote. We can assume that the latter point is more true for LFI applications. Gaël Sliman of the Odoxa Institute explains: “64% of CCN voters who have to choose between a Rassemblement candidate and an NR candidate declare themselves encouraged to vote for the Rassemblement candidate, compared to only 5% for the NR candidate. The trend is less strong, but just as important for central bloc voters, “who are 4 to 5 times more likely (49% vs. 11%) to say they would vote for RN rather than against.” For LR voters, the picture is more mixed, with only 35% saying they are more inclined to vote against RN, while 28% see this as reinforcing their willingness to vote for the far-right coalition. Future opinion polls on this issue will have to be closely watched.
In the end, the NFP and “Together!” thanks to their withdrawals, were able to win most of their duels against the RN. If it is wrong to speak of a defeat of this party, which has considerably increased its electoral strength and has gone from 89 deputies to 143 (with its allies), the elections of July 7 do not confirm the previous dynamics. While on June 30, the RN bloc had won 39 constituencies, was in the lead in 258 and qualified for the second round in 186 others, it only obtained, with its allies, 104 victories on July 7. The RN achieves its best performance by re-electing deputies from its strongholds in the North, Northeast and Southeast, and by expanding its institutional influence in these territories, but there is little confirmation of its growth in terms of elected representatives, in the areas where it is less implanted, in Brittany for example. It also seems – this is a point raised by some analysts and by Bardella himself – that the 80 or so RN candidates denounced for their racist, homophobic, anti-Semitic, etc. comments weighed heavily in the end. According to one analyst, “this influenced the turn to the left, because voters (re)discovered an image of RN they did not know.”
What do the elections show?
To understand what has happened, it is necessary to take into account the situation of deep political and social crisis that is shaking the whole of Europe and also France, and which is the basis of the enormous social and political polarization we are seeing in the country.
If on the one hand there is a tendency towards the strengthening of struggles and the emergence of independent activists, not linked to political forces and confronting the trade union bureaucracy, on the other hand there is a clear increase of nationalist tendencies, just at a time when the EU, boxed in the middle of the clash between the two main world imperialisms, USA and China, plays an increasingly subordinate role in the world economy and politics.
In the absence of revolutionary parties capable of representing the struggles and advancing them in the sense of questioning the capitalist system, the parties of the reformist left are growing electorally. But also right-wing and far-right populism such as RN in France, which tries to turn popular discontent and anger against Macron’s policies in its favor, relying in particular on the impoverished lower middle class. To do this it uses racist and xenophobic propaganda that tries to blame all ills on the most oppressed sectors such as migrant workers, thus fomenting divisions within the proletariat.
Immediate uncertainties
Macronism managed to stop his defeat. Macron seems to want to gain time… to the point of letting the Olympic Games pass? Attal tendered his resignation on July 8, but he refused, asking him to remain in office until the 18th, which Attal accepted. We will probably have to wait a bit to find out exactly what is going on.
The leaders of the Popular Front are negotiating to propose the name of a prime minister who will also have to be ratified by Macron. The first secretary of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, has already rejected Mélenchon, even though France insoumise is the coalition party with the most elected representatives. For the time being, the LFI leadership demands the implementation of the “program, the whole program but nothing but the program” of the NFP. Among the most representative politicians of the bourgeois left (Glucksmann, Hollande and many others) there is a real will to “save soldier Macron” by forming an anti-NFP government of national unity. Yaël Braun-Pivet hastened to drive a wedge between the left, calling for the formation of a “big central bloc”, without LFI and RN. Mélenchon himself was never any bastion of class independence, and can accept collaboration with the bourgeois parties. The French semi-presidentialist regime includes countless combinations of explicit and implicit agreements with the bourgeois parties and even with Macron.
Be that as it may, the RN is not dead. “I see all the seeds of tomorrow’s victory”: this is what Marine Le Pen declared to ward off the bitterness of her rank and file, adding, “The tide is rising, this time it did not rise enough, but it is still rising. Our victory is only delayed.” It is very likely that the RN will be further strengthened in the political sequence to come, especially if the NFP reveals its programmatic incoherence – if it tries to implement it – or, on the contrary, if it disintegrates, with a sufficiently large proportion of its elected representatives deciding to swallow the Macronist soup. A bourgeois soup necessarily inedible for the working classes, and which for years has plunged them into unhappiness, poverty and despair, the breeding ground of Lepenism.
Our tasks
In contrast to the deviations and renunciations to be expected, the struggle ahead must at the same time be an uncompromising class struggle.
In all cases, the mobilization and struggles of our class will be decisive. We must insist on the need for class independence, systematically scorned at one time or another by reformist and trade union leaders.
But whoever the struggle for class independence also necessarily means the hard political work to defend the values of internationalism. This means, in the first place, raising the banner of struggle against imperialism and French colonialism and their innumerable misdeeds, from Françafrique to Kanaky. This also means supporting the Ukrainian resistance against Russian imperialism and standing with the Palestinian people against the genocide carried out by the State of Israel. This also includes, of course, unwavering solidarity with our immigrant brothers and sisters or those of immigrant origin.
Last but not least, the idea of a general strike is hardly in people’s minds today, but in the face of the danger of the extreme right, the Macronist maneuvers and the betrayals of the “left” that are looming, it is essential to prepare patiently, to work to mature it by systematically seeking the regroupment for the struggle of the most determined militant sectors. We call to take to the streets to defend measures of the NFP program such as the repeal of the pension reform or the rise of the SMI that we cannot trust nor wait for them to be achieved only through parliamentary channels.
The coming weeks, even before the start of the school year in September, will tell us more precisely the political framework in which we will have to mobilize.
Notes:
- https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_gegraphique/index.html ︎
- https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/resultats-legislatives-2024-decouvrez-la-nouvelle-assemblee-nationale-20240707 ︎
