By FABIO BOSCO
On Nov. 27, a coalition of Syrian rebel groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and with the participation of sectors of Jeish al-Wattani (National Army, supported by the Turkish regime) began a major offensive on the province of Aleppo, taking large rural areas, as well as a large part of the city of Aleppo, the second most important city in Syria. They also moved toward Hama, after taking the highway that connects Aleppo to Hama and Damascus and cutting off vital supply lines for the forces of the Syrian regime and its allies.
The forces of the Syrian regime and the foreign militias supported by the Iranian regime were surprised and underwent several setbacks. The Syrian regime employed Syrian and Russian aviation to cowardly bomb the rebel province of Idlib and the city of Aleppo, but was unable to contain the rebel offensive.
The Syrian population in Idlib and Deraa (in the south of the country, and the birthplace of the 2011 revolution) celebrated the advances of the offensive. In addition, there were clashes between the Druze community and the Syrian regime forces in Suweida, in the south of the country. In a separate dispute from the fight against the Syrian regime, the U.S.-backed SDF Kurdish forces and the Iranian and Russian militias supporting the Syrian regime clashed in Deir Zour, in the east of the country, for the control of the left bank of the Euphrates River. (1)
The rebel offensive is fueled primarily by the hatred that the Syrian population feels toward the Assad dictatorship and its Iranian and Russian backers. This hatred is not only based on the massacres committed against the population to drown in blood the 2011 Syrian revolution. It is also based on the situation of poverty and bombardments to which around 4 million Syrian refugees living in the rebel province of Idlib are subjected. This explains the support of hundreds of young people who are eager to defeat the forces of the Syrian regime and expel the Iranian-backed foreign militias.
Other factors also explain the success of the offensive
The Syrian regime subjects the Syrian population to poverty, lack of public services, and the humiliating daily harassment and exploitation imposed by the intelligence services (“mukhabarat” in Arabic) and by militias associated with the regime, popularly known as “shabiha” (“ghost” in reference to the vehicles used by these militiamen in the 1970s and 80s).
In addition, Syria is a country occupied by six foreign military forces:
1) Iran-backed militias (Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Lebanese Hezbollah, Quwat al-Hashd al-Shaabi/Popular Mobilization Forces of Iraq, etc.) and Russia—which has two important military bases on the coast and others scattered around—control 60% of the territory together with the forces of the hated Syrian regime.
2) The United States maintains 900 military advisors coordinating thousands of contractors, in alliance with the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces—led by the Kurdish PYD), which controls about 27% of the territory in the northwest where there are the major oil and gas reserves as well as productive lands.
3) Turkey controls the province of Afrin and a border strip, and maintains a range of allied militias coordinated by the National Army militia (Jeish al-Wattani in Arabic).
4) Israel has controlled a significant part of the Golan Heights since 1967 and recently took over rural areas of the city of Quneitra (without any reaction from the cowardly Syrian regime).
5) The Iraqi group Daesh has some presence on the border with Iraq.
For these reasons (repression, poverty, and loss of national sovereignty), the Syrian regime is hated by the population, and the Syrian military forces are totally dependent on militias linked to Iran and the Russian air force to keep Assad in power. However, Russia has deployed aircraft and military forces to carry out the genocide in Ukraine, in addition to importing a large part of the Iranian production of Fathi missiles and Shaheed drones for that purpose, which weakens the military support for the regime. Iranian militias are also weakened. Several Hezbollah militias have been relocated back to Lebanon, being replaced by less experienced pro-Iranian militias.
Another issue is the airstrikes by the State of Israel against Iranian and Syrian targets in Syrian territory. These attacks by Zionist forces have the complicity of the Russian regime, which does nothing to protect Syria’s airspace.
The role of the Turkish regime
The Turkish regime has a number of interests in Syria. The main one is to create a sanitary cordon separating the Kurdish areas in Turkey and Syria (called Bakur and Rojava, respectively). In the past, the Kurdish PKK relied on bases in Syria for its operations in Kurdistan under Turkish occupation.
Erdogan is also interested in a solution for the approximately 4 million Syrian refugees who are in the country, and who are the target of xenophobic campaigns by far-right groups, polarizing the national politics.
Finally, the Turkish regime has always been interested in expanding its sphere of political and economic influence, and for this reason it sought to control the Syrian opposition forces at the time of the 2011 revolution, and now sponsors the coalition around the National Army militia (Jeish al-Wattani). Recently, Erdogan changed his geopolitical orientation and sought an understanding with the Syrian regime, without success.
The Turkish regime certainly facilitated the rebel offensive through sectors of Jeish al-Wattani. But its objectives are different from those of the Syrian population, who are fighting for the end of the dictatorship and the occupation of the country by foreign forces.
For this reason, the Turkish regime may reach an agreement with Putin and the Iranian regime to contain the offensive against the Syrian regime. Talks are underway. (2)
Trump’s inauguration
Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20 is a factor that accelerated the rebel forces’ decision to begin their offensive.
On the one hand, Trump promises to impose a ceasefire in Ukraine, handing over Ukrainian territory to Putin and bringing relief to the Russian military and economy, which are strained by the war effort. This would allow Putin to redeploy forces to Syria to support the murderous Assad regime.
On the other hand, Trump could decide to shift U.S. support away from the Kurdish SDF/PYD, which controls 27% of Syrian territory, in order to hand over border strips to the Turkish government to create a cordon sanitaire and, eventually, deport part of the Syrian refugees. Such a decision could accommodate Erdogan’s interests in order to remove Jeish al-Wattani from any military offensive against the Syrian regime and to freeze the coalition led by HTS.
No trust in HTS!
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is one of the groups that played a negative role during the Syrian revolution, by seeking to change the nature of the democratic revolution into a sectarian civil war. This organization is accused of repressing the population and assassinating opposition figures such as the famous radio host Raed Fares. One of its main sources of support came from Qatar.
In recent times, al-Joulani, the main leader of HTS, has sought to change the organization’s image. Not only did he break with Al-Qaeda in 2016, but he has also sought to present himself as the normal bourgeois force that governs Idlib, levying taxes on all trade and keeping his distance from the unpopular Syrian regime. The change in image does not imply a break with Salafist sectors, which advocate a sectarian theocratic dictatorship, but rather a softening of this image.
Of course, the offensive in Aleppo can also be explained by HTS’s need to find an outlet for popular discontent within Idlib.
A revolutionary alternative to the fight against the dictatorship
In any case, this offensive in Aleppo is in line with the desires of the vast majority of the Syrian population for an end to the dictatorship, foreign occupation, and the poverty to which they are subjected. But what is missing is a leading organization that is completely different from HTS: a workers’, democratic, and revolutionary organization.
Activists committed to the ideals of the Arab revolutions (freedom, bread, and social justice) must build a new political organization that will promote democratic popular councils in the liberated zones, where the working people can decide the future of the fight against the dictatorship. Throughout the Syrian revolution, there have been several democratic experiences of self-organization—which need to be revived. We cannot accept that the Assad dictatorship be replaced by another dictatorship of autocratic groups, be it HTS or any other. The fight for democratic freedoms for the Syrian working people goes hand in hand with the fight against the Assad dictatorship.
In addition, there is an ongoing genocide in Palestine. Today, the Palestinians can only count on the support of the working classes and youth of the Arab countries and the entire world. A new revolutionary organization must stand for unconditional support for the Palestinian people, for the reconstruction of al-Yarmouk [the Palestinian refugee camp in Damascus], which was largely destroyed by the Syrian regime, and for the recapture of all Syrian territory occupied by the Zionist entity in the Golan Heights, contrary to the conciliatory stand towards Zionism promoted by the Assad dynasty.
The Kurdish question is another strategic issue for the new Syrian revolution. The Kurdish population represents about 10% of the population in Syria. The Kurds have always been under the oppression of the Assad dictatorship. At the beginning of the Syrian revolution, important Kurdish leaders such as Meshaal Temmo (who was assassinated in PYD’s controlled territory) advocated unity in the struggle against Assad. However, the leading forces of the Syrian revolution have never made a democratic commitment to defend the right of self-determination for the Kurdish population. This facilitated the actions of the Kurdish PYD party, whose strategy was a tacit alliance with Assad, withdrawing the Kurdish masses from the Syrian revolution in exchange for some concessions from the dictatorship.
This mistake must be avoided by calling the Kurdish population to fight against the dictatorship and defend their right to self-determination, a right that has always been denied by the Syrian regime. At the same time, it is necessary to call on the PYD to break with the Syrian regime and American imperialism, and join the fight against the Syrian dictatorship, and establish a non-aggression agreement between the rebel forces and the SDF, guaranteeing the autonomy of Rojava, rejecting any pressure from the Turkish regime. It is also necessary to demand from the SDF full democratic freedoms within Rojava so that the Kurdish people can exercise their right to self-determination in freedom.
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