On August 6, 2024, the Ukrainian armed forces carried out an incursion into Russian territory. In a few days time, they took over about 1,200 km2, which includes the border town of Sudja and about 90 villages in the Kursk province.
By: Fábio Bosco
The explosion of bridges over the Seym River and the construction of trenches show that Ukrainian forces have no intention of advancing, but they may possibly take over other border areas in the Bryansk and Novgorod provinces.
So far, the occupation of part of the Kursk province has represented some important gains for Ukraine and exposed the Putin regime’s weaknesses. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the occupation of the Russian territory is temporary and aims to force Putin to negotiate peace.
In fact, the pressure from Western imperialist countries for a negotiated “peace” with the partition of Ukraine points to the possibility of a peace conference with both Ukrainian and Russian presences later this year, as well as direct negotiations in which the occupied territories in Kursk could be a bargaining chip.
The seizure of this Russian territory also configured it as a buffer zone to prevent Russian aggression against the Ukrainian province of Sumy, and make it more difficult to attack the Ukrainian province of Kharkiv, where the country’s second largest city sits.
The seized territory also serves as a base for attacks on Russian economic targets, such as the gas export center to Europe in the city of Sudja, and for the possible cutting of supply lines of energy from the Kursk nuclear power plant. In addition, it could serve as an outpost for sending drones and missiles against Russian refineries and military airports.
Part of the Ukrainian population and the military still view the offensive on Kursk with distrust due to the lack of ammunition and soldiers to defend Donbas. In spite of that, the control of this plot of Russian territory, the advanced production of aerial and maritime drones, and the bombings on refineries and military airfields inside Russian territory have filled the Ukrainian people with pride. The rejection of the cession of any Ukrainian territory to Putin has been expressed in a survey among active and reserve military personnel. Only 18% agree that Ukraine should seek a negotiated end to the conflict. But 15% say they would join armed protests if the government signs an agreement with which they do not agree.
The failures of Russian forces on the border expose weaknesses
The military incursion into Kursk highlighted major challenges for the Russian regime. On the one hand, the easy surrender of Russian soldiers, many of whom were new recruits, shows the soldiers’ unwillingness to lose their lives in a war that they do not perceive as theirs. About 500 Russian soldiers were arrested and 135 have already been exchanged for Ukrainian soldiers arrested by Russia, which was celebrated by the Ukrainian population.
On the other hand, the reaction of ordinary people in Russia shows the continued distancing of the majority of the population from the objectives of the war. There was no popular uprising or acts of sabotage to oppose the Ukrainian troops. Nor was there a nationalist wave of military conscription throughout the country to expel them. It seems that this is a passive opposition to the war, with a significant part of the Russian population not considering the war as their own, due to the close family and cultural ties that tend to be stronger in the border regions that existed until 2014.
The “passive” opposition of a part of the Russian population is very important because any opposition to the war can be punished with imprisonment for up to 15 years, or in some cases suspicious deaths, poisoning, or falling from buildings. Discontent against the war continues among sectors of the Russian oligarchy itself. Since 2022, Aven, Fridman, Abramovich, Timchenko and Deripaska have already criticized the “special operation”. In early August, oligarch Oleg Deripaska once again stated that the “special military operation” is madness and that it must end. (1)
The Ukrainian incursion has also led to a fall in the value of the ruble, which will certainly lead to an increase in inflation and possibly an increase in the interest rate by the Russian Central Bank, which is already at the high level of 18% per year. The Russian regime is implementing a war economy, maximizing resources for the war effort and managing its negative effects on the population. But the challenges are enormous. On the one hand, there is a shortage of labor due to low wages (2), the departure of one million young Russians from the country in 2022, and the military draft. Companies and the government are forced to increase the value of contracts with outsourced companies.
Russian troops have been facing about 1,000 casualties per day over the past month, including deaths and injuries, which will require a new military draft that Putin is trying to avoid. Furthermore, this level of casualties is unsustainable in the long term. On the other hand, Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries reduced the production of refined oil by 5%, affecting export revenues, at a time when the slowdown in the global economy has reduced the price of the barrel of oil.
Finally, there are difficulties in arms production. Russia cannot produce all the weapons it needs for war, and so it imports Shaheed drones and Fathi missiles from Iran, and a lot of second-hand ammunition from North Korea. Furthermore, Russia, the second largest military and nuclear power, does not have sufficient anti-aircraft defense to prevent Ukrainian attacks with numerous drones that have targeted important military companies and infrastructure, and even the capital Moscow. Chinese imperialism, the main partner of Russian imperialism, does not deliver weapons to Putin to avoid European and U.S. sanctions, limiting its exports to Russia to parts that can be used in the arms industry and other goods, in addition to importing oil at prices below those of the world market.
Putin’s criminal response
Around 30,000 Russian troops have been redeployed to confront the Ukrainians in Kursk, which is enough to stabilize the battlefront but not enough to retake Kursk. Putin is racing against the clock before winter arrives at the end of October to take more Ukrainian territory in the Donbas. In particular, he is focusing efforts on the strategic city of Pokrovsk, where he is maintaining a strong offensive with around 100,000 soldiers, of whom around 1,000 are killed or wounded every day. It is estimated that Putin has already lost 70,000 soldiers, including the dead and the wounded, in the last three months, which is more than the number of U.S. deaths in the Vietnam War.
Pokrovsk is a strategic logistics hub for Ukrainian troops in the region, as well as an important coking coal production center, the loss of which would force the Ukrainian government to depend on imported coal, which would have a strong impact on the metallurgical industry. However, the eventual loss of Pokrovsk does not imply the loss of the entire Donbas. It would be a Ukrainian defeat at a high cost to Russian forces, the loss of a battle but not the loss of the war.
In addition to redeploying troops to Kursk and stepping up the offensive on Pokrovsk, Putin has stepped up bombings against Ukrainian cities, hitting residential areas and especially energy infrastructure. It is estimated that energy production and distribution in Ukraine is around 50% of pre-2022 levels. The bombardment of Poltava, the deadliest so far, caused 57 deaths and more than 300 injuries. The bombardments over cities highlight the lack of anti-aircraft batteries, leaving the population unprotected.
Finally, there are Belarussian troop movements near the Ukrainian border, in addition to cyberattacks and intense and false Russian propaganda around the world. This has been expressed not only by a communication network (websites, influencers, radio channels) but also by the governments of Hungary and Slovakia, as well as Putinist political parties such as the “Alternative for Germany” (AfD), a far-right neo-Nazi party that got around 30% of the votes in two German provinces in the elections on September 1. Another German ally is the “left” party ASW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance), led by a Putin agent, which obtained more than 11% of the vote with an anti-immigrant campaign and against any aid to Ukraine.
The Ukrainian cabinet shuffle
President Zelensky announced the shuffle of nine ministers in his cabinet under the argument of the need for “new energy”. The main issue is the Ukrainian population’s fatigue and discontent with the general state of the country and with the government: the lack of weapons due to the conscious actions of Western imperialism, the impoverishment of the working class due to inflation and the relaxation of labor and social rights imposed by the neoliberal government, power outages, oligarchy privileges and corruption, and compulsory military conscription, among other issues. Zelensky took advantage of this discontent to appoint new ministers chosen from his close circle of trust to overcome any unpopular situations such as the concession of territory in eventual peace negotiations.
In addition, the dismissal of Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, known for some harsh statements demanding weapons from Western countries, was intended to appease Zelensky’s NATO allies, who continue their policy of undersupplying weapons to prevent Putin from defeat. In this way, Kulema suffered the same fate as the popular commander of the armed forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a persona non-grata of the Western powers. Kuleba’s replacement, Andrii Sybiha, is viewed with suspicion because of his past relations with the Russian secret service.
The hypocrisy of Western imperialism
Ukraine faces an unequal war over the arms issue, on top of numerous troops enlisted so far from the poorest nationalities in the Russian Federation. The unprecedented delivery of six F16 aircraft was celebrated by the Ukrainian government but fell far short of the necessary provision of at least 130 F16 aircraft to confront Russian air hegemony based on more than a thousand aircraft.
The Ukrainians managed to find a solution to remove all Russian warships from the battlefront with the maritime drones that terrorized the Russian naval fleet in Crimea. But Russian air hegemony continues due to Western imperialism’s policy of preventing a Ukrainian victory. Some experts point out that Ukraine needs about USD 100 billion per year in weapons to confront Russia. With USD 150 billion per year, Russia would be defeated. But all Western powers claim economic or political difficulties in the shipment of weapons to Ukraine. The proposed solution of expropriating the US$330 billion in Russian assets frozen in Western countries has been shelved.
In addition to avoiding a military defeat for Putin and working towards the partition of Ukraine, the Western powers also aim to control Ukraine’s rich agricultural lands, with the consequent reprimarization of the national economy.
War economy
The Zelensky government’s policy places the entire burden of the war effort on the shoulders of the working class. A different war economy plan is needed, one that prioritizes the war effort and the living conditions of the working class.
The development of the arms industry has been limited to the important production of air and sea drones, but is far behind in the production of ammunition, anti-aircraft batteries and missiles. The lack of domestic arms production subjects Ukraine to blackmail by the Western powers, which conspire against Ukraine’s victory.
There have been no actions to mitigate the effects of Russian destruction: there has been no distribution of batteries for each household to minimize the effects of power outages; there has been no distribution of cheap essential food for the entire population; there has been no real minimum wage to prevent working-class families from falling into poverty; there has been no economic aid for the hundreds of thousands of displaced families; there has been no plan for cheap housing for the displaced; there is a lack of medicines and basic hospital supplies.
Not all of the Ukrainian population is in poverty. The old oligarchy has suffered losses from the war, but it continues to benefit from the workers’ exploitation and from billions in funds abroad; the same resources that are lacking to guarantee a minimum of dignity for the population in times of war. They are joined by a new oligarchy linked to the Zelensky government, which has benefited from the war businesses. Social inequality is brutal. The oligarchs and the rich drive around in luxury cars and frequent expensive shops and restaurants in Kyiv while the working class sinks into poverty.
Despite the conscious policy of the Western powers to prevent a Ukrainian victory, it is possible to defeat and expel Putin’s troops. However, the Zelensky government, by subordinating itself to Western orders, has also become an obstacle to the Ukrainian victory. The dismissal of Zaluzhny and the explosion of the Nordstream gas pipeline are examples of this subordination. (3)
The working class must self-organize to take power and impose an anti-oligarchic war economy plan that will strengthen the war effort and guarantee decent living conditions of the working class until Putin is defeated, based on the socialization of the oligarchy’s assets, at home and abroad, and the cancellation of the foreign debt. (4) In addition, it is up to the international working class to demand that their governments send the necessary weapons so that the Ukrainian working class can defend itself and expel the Russian troops. To do this, it is necessary to expose not only Putin’s friends on the far right and the “left,” but also Ukraine’s hypocritical “allies”.
NOTES:
(1) https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/08/08/milliarder-deripaska-nazval-voinu-putina-v-ukraine-bezumiem-i-prizval-nemedlenno-ee-ostanovit-a138992
(2) According to a Putinist Telegram channel, the Russian population is postponing or abandoning plans to have children due to the political situation and financial difficulties. A study by the Higher School of Economics of the National Research University published a study that indicates changes in the reproductive plans of the population living in the country in 2022 and 2023. About 21% decided to postpone their plans to have children, and 9.5% gave up altogether. The birth rate is at an all-time low in the first half of 2024.
(3) The Wall Street Journal and Washington Post newspapers published a version about the Nordstream gas pipeline explosion in 2022. This pipeline exported Russian gas directly to Germany through the depths of the Baltic Sea. According to these U.S. media version, a small team of six Ukrainians (4 professional divers), under the guidance of military commander Zaluzhnyi, planted explosives in the gas pipeline at a depth of 80 meters, which, when activated, opened cracks that flooded the pipeline and made it impossible to use. The report explains that, before the explosion, the Dutch secret service obtained information about the plan through espionage and informed the American government, which pressured Zelenskyi to abandon it. Zaluzhnyi, however, implemented the plan. Although the Ukrainian government denies any involvement in the explosion, the report shows Zelenskyi’s subservience.
(4) According to the press, Ukraine is in default on its foreign debt.
