By Alicia Sagra and Julián Ledezma
The outcome of the Bolivian elections, which resulted in the defeat of the MAS, had a significant impact on the international press. Newspapers around the world proclaimed the end of 20 years of “21st-century socialism.” Headlines loudly declared, “20 years of 21st-century socialism are over!” Bolivia is changing course! Bolivians are opting for right-wing parties!”
However, this narrative contains two major falsehoods
First, the idea that there was never socialism in Bolivia is false. Evo’s government only came to be because of the workers’ and popular revolution of 2003–2005. While it was a byproduct of the revolution, it was never a revolutionary government. As mentioned in previous articles, the bourgeoisie and imperialism accepted that government with the aim of diverting the powerful revolutionary process that challenged power. This was achieved, and the revolution was halted. The greatest proof of this is that during the entire period of the MAS government under Evo Morales and Luis Arce, there was never a socialist economy. In fact, those years were very prosperous for national and international banks, transnational mining and oil companies, and the landowning oligarchy of Santa Cruz and the eastern region.
While it’s true that the revolutionary processes of 2003 and 2005 forced Evo to promote greater participation by the indigenous majority in state administration and spaces previously closed to white elites, as well as cultural measures representing victories for a people oppressed for hundreds of years, the government never adopted a socialist economy. Additionally, the favorable global economic climate and favorable prices of raw materials increased hydrocarbon revenues, especially from gas exports. This allowed for a relative improvement in family incomes through moderate subsidies and minor improvements in education and public health.
These progressive, democratizing measures occurred primarily during Evo Morales’s first two administrations, thanks to the strength and determination of social organizations with fresh memories of the 2003 and 2005 revolutions, as well as the economic boom from gas exports.
However, these social advances began to stall in the last ten years. The interests of agribusinesses, oil companies, and transnational mining companies were openly prioritized over the rights of indigenous peoples to their territories and environmental preservation. Consequently, conflicts arose with the Tipnis people, repression occurred against indigenous peoples who opposed the mega-highway, and communal and peasant lands were encroached upon in favor of mining exploitation. Additionally, in 2013, workers were repressed for mobilizing to demand a 100% retirement pension and an end to the neoliberal pension law, which currently forces retirees to live on meager incomes. Additionally, the co-opting and instrumentalization of trade unions generated disappointment among significant worker, peasant, and impoverished sectors. This led to a progressive loss of prestige for Evo and his governments.
Meanwhile, the Bolivian bourgeoisie saw the reduction in gas exports deepening and the state’s revenue shrinking. They felt the MAS was a hindrance. To remove it, the bourgeoisie took advantage of Evo’s growing discredit to promote the 2019 military coup. This allowed them to take direct control of the state administration and seize the reduced state revenues.
However, although the masses were disenchanted with the MAS government, they did not accept a return to the authoritarianism of the military that was so familiar in Bolivian history. They began to resist strongly, which prevented the coup government from stabilizing. In 2020, the MAS won the elections again, and Luis Arce, nominated by Evo, became president.
Not only did this government fail to respond positively to the economic crisis, it also shifted the burden onto workers, peasants, and the poor while deepening the exploitation of natural resources begun by Evo. Then came the shameful confrontation that divided and pitted social organizations against each other, resulting in a three-way split in the elections.
A second falsehood is the claim that the vast majority of workers, peasants, indigenous peoples, and oppressed groups moved to the right and voted en masse for neoliberal candidates. The media minimizes or hides the fact that a significant portion of voters cast invalid ballots in response to Evo Morales’s call. Nationally, the null vote came in third place with 1.3 million votes. If the votes of the other two MAS sectors that went to the polls were added, they would total 1.9 million votes—well above the votes received by the current winners, Rodrigo Paz and Lara, who must go to a runoff against Tuto Quiroga.
This makes it clear that the right wing’s current victory is entirely EVO’s and MAS’s responsibility for prioritizing their own interests over those of the majority. Unlike in 1985, when disillusionment with the UDP’s Frente Popular government led to enthusiasm for the right wing, this election does not reflect a widespread enthusiasm for the right wing. The surprise candidates who won, Rodrigo Paz and Captain Lara, who campaigned against corruption on social media, served as a refuge for voters who previously supported Evo and the MAS to block the more reactionary right wing represented by Tuto Quiroga and Doria Medina.
Does the defeat of the MAS, Evo, and Andrónico represent a qualitative change in Bolivia?
No, there won’t be any radical changes to economic policy. It will continue to serve business and imperialism. There will be harsh adjustments, but even a government led by MAS or Evo, in the event of a different election outcome, would have had to implement them. The differences between a government led by Evo, Andrónico, Tuto Quiroga, or Rodrigo Paz would be minimal. Neither the MAS candidates nor Andrónico nor Evo proposed confronting imperialism, so the differences in the adjustments from one government to the next would only be a matter of pace. These adjustments would always be against the workers and in favor of big business, whether national or foreign.
In light of the new government that will emerge from the second round, it will be necessary to continue and intensify the struggles that have been taking place against the MAS government. With the new government, it is likely that the social space won by the indigenous majorities will be lost, and the discrimination characteristic of the most reactionary right-wing sectors will resume. It’s important to remember that there’s a universal law: when the revolution slows down due to the actions of class-alliance governments, the right wing gains ground. Therefore, the great task remains: to establish a government of workers and peasants that breaks with the bourgeoisie and capitalism.
