An autocratic Bonapartist regime of Sheik Hasina has fallen! This is without a doubt a victory for the student’s movement. The victory has been achieved with the martyrdom of over 300 students and workers, who became victims of police and paramilitary aggression.
The regime of Sheik Hasina came in power in 2008 following elections that year, gaining a second term at the end of the caretaker government’s mandate. She and her party, the Awami league, had been progressively entrenching their position in power since then.
By the time the Awami League won a record fourth term, in an election that was heavily rigged, and boycotted by major opposition parties, it’s power had become almost absolute. On paper, Bangladesh was a regular bourgeois parliamentary democracy, in practice it had become an autocracy of one party, centered around one leader, Sheik Hasina.
In many ways, the regime we saw toppled today, was a resurrection of the BAKSAL regime crafted by Sheik Hasina’s father, and the first Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheik Mujibar Rahman. The new nation had seen it’s fledgling democratic structure eroded and transformed into a one party state ruled through the party apparatus commanding a paramilitary and army. The BAKSAL regime imploded under pressure from the military, following a disastrous famine which killed hundreds of thousands. Sheik Hasina’s 21st century autocracy collapsed in the face of mass mobilization of youth and workers.
A timeline of events
The protests by the students started first in 2018 when the new quota system for education and government jobs were first proposed. The quota system offers 30% of seats in college and an even greater portion of government jobs to those who are descendants of freedom fighters, who had fought in the Liberation war of Bangladesh. In other words, the system privileged the sons and grandsons of approximately 300,000 soldiers, and party activists who had fought actively in the liberation war of 1971.
With the Awami League in power, this translates to an indirect way of securing hegemony over jobs and education, as the Awami League largely led the independence war and the independence movement. One must see this in the context of institutionalized corruption in Bangladesh, it becomes an easy tool to use for the Awami League to ensure the greatest privileges for it’s members.
After the first protests the government withdrew the quota, but the quotas were reinstated after the government approached the Dhaka High Court. The decision was passed on June 5, 2024 and sparked off the student protests.
The latest round of student protests happened in the context of a severe economic decline in Bangladesh, owing first to the pandemic, which affected the country’s textile industry, and then Russia’s war on Ukraine which affected Bangladesh’s oil and food imports. Job losses from the effect of the Pandemic, coupled with rising inflation as a result of disruptions to oil and food imports, created a double pressure on the youth and working population of the country.
The situation came to a point, where a large section of garment workers remain unemployed and paid starvation wages, while up to 40% of the youth had neither education opportunities nor jobs. In such a situation, the Awami League decided to impose a measure which would ensure the most secure and paying jobs, which exist in the public sector, went to its own cadres, who would also get the best educational opportunities.
The students protests were large and impassioned, but would not have exploded had it not been for the callous statement of Sheik Hasina herself, who called the students ‘razakars’, likening them to the reactionary collaborators of the Pakistan army during the liberation war. The students, (many of whom were from the minority Hindu community) were rightfully insulted by this, and fought with even greater passion.
In response, the government decided to deploy its hated paramilitaries and it’s heavily militarized police, what followed was a bloodbath. Bangladesh has a paramilitary infamous for its brutal tactics, and high level of militarization, the Rapid Action Battalion, or RAB. The cruelty of the Bangladeshi law enforcement forces were shown in earlier protests, where protesters were treated with violence sometimes leading to death.
The repression faced by garment workers is a clear example of this repressive machinery of the Bangladeshi state. The worst of the policing came upon the student and youth protesters, with the government responding to peaceful protests with violence. The police violence, and defensive violence by protesters characterized much of the protests up to Monday. As repression grew, as did the protests. Over the course of July, the protests kept growing, with the government’s response growing ever more repressive.
At it’s peak, Bangladesh was subjected to nationwide curfews, internet blackouts and rampant police firings. Videos have since surfaced of police snipers indiscriminately opening fire on innocent civilians, not sparing little children either.
The decision of the High Court on the quota system was challenged before the Supreme Court, which reserved it’s judgment until July 21, when the Court struck down the proposed quota, and shrank it down from considerably. Despite this, the protesters did not calm down. By the time of the judgement, up to 139 people had been killed, as reported by mainstream news sources. The real number could be higher.
By this time, the protests had ceased to be about quotas alone, and targeted the Awami League regime itself. Monday August 5 was to be the day of the long march of the students to demand accountability for repression, and justice for those slain by the police and paramilitaries. This was the peak of the protests, and it would likely have succeeded in storming the centers of power, had Sheik Hasina not chosen to resign and flee.
This brought a final end to the 15 year rule of the Awami league and Sheik Hasina, a period marked by Bangladesh’s transformation into the sweatshop of the world, ruled through an autocratic boss in the form of Sheik Hasina. The ‘growth story’ made her own cronies exceptionally rich and powerful, while leaving most people of Bangladesh in poverty.
Sheik Hasina’s departure and the international response
Bangladesh had been a valuable asset of many of the world’s powers, who sought to exploit it’s abundance of cheap labour, agricultural resources, and natural resources. For all those invested in the exploitation of Bangladesh, the shocking downfall of its self-styled wannabe lee Kwan Yeu came as nothing short of a shock.
The one country that is most affected by this has been India, which is heavily invested in trade with Bangladesh. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested in Bangladesh’s energy and infrastructure by Indian corporations, while Bangladesh is one of the key export targets for Indian goods. India surrounds Bangladesh on three sides, with the exception of the border with Myanmar, and virtually controls the Bay of Bengal with it’s enormous navy. It is an uneven relationship that successive governments in Bangladesh have attempted to ameliorate, by using China or Pakistan as counter-weights to India.
The Hasina government however, entrenched Indian influence and essentially pegged Bangladesh economically and politically to India. The reality of her deep connection to India became crystal clear when she chose India as the preferred destination to flee to. Here she was given shelter by Prime Minister Modi. As of writing this article, the USA has revoked her passport, and the UK (where her son lives) has denied her asylum.
Al Jazeera, the mouthpiece of the Qatari government, typically tends to lean in favor of Islamist governments, has welcomed the ouster of Sheik Hasina, and is largely focusing on the celebrations which followed her ouster, ignoring the descent into violence targeting Hindu minorities. This is a stark contrast with Indian media channels, which singularly focus on the violence against Hindus, while largely ignoring or downplaying, the victory of the students agitation, and the government’s own repression against the masses.
The sequence of events suggests that Indian agencies had been working behind the scenes, or in coordination with the Bangladesh army to secure Sheik Hasina’s life. She and her son could then become a future asset with which India would reassert it’s influence, disregarding the hatred of the Bangladeshi people towards her. A recent revelation has shown that India was prepared and willing to intervene militarily against Bangladesh during the 2009 Bangladesh Rifle’s mutiny, which ultimately secured Sheik Hasina’s rule, and gave her the confidence to entrench herself and build a dictatorial government over Bangladesh.
Such a maneuver cannot be ruled out this time around as well. However, the defense of capital is of supreme interest, and with Hasina gone, the next best alternatives to ensure that Bangladesh remains a sweatshop of the world, making fast fashion for the world’s largest brands, would be any of the bourgeois leaders whether it be Khaleda Zia of the BNP or Mohammad Yunus.
The maneuvers of the army
The Bangladesh army intervened at the decisive stage of the protests and reportedly gave Sheik Hasina a 45 hour ultimatum in which to resign. The decision was borne of desperation and fear as the protests were spreading and growing in intensity. Even before the long march had begun, Sheik Hasina could be seen fleeing the Prime Minister’s residence in a military helicopter. Air clearance was given from the Indian government, after which she landed in India’s capital, marking the end of her reign, and the beginning of another military rule.
The Chief of army Waker Uz Zaman announced the resignation of the Prime Minister, and the army’s takeover of the government. As of today August 6, the president dissolved parliament. The army maneuvered to take advantage of the anger of the masses, and called for talks with all political parties and students bodies, as was reported in the mainstream press. An interim government is now formed, with Mohammad Yunus, of grameen bank fame, as it’s Chief advisor.
With the resignation of Sheik Hasina and the dissolution of the parliament, the police and paramilitaries have apparently melted from the scene. Among the first acts of the new military government was to free political prisoners, including the BNL leader Khaleda Zia, and the Jamat I Islami.
These right wing parties emerge from a pro-pakistan background, with the Jamaat being drawn from ranks of Pakistani collaborators. They are a reactionary Islamist party which was infamous for it’s lumpen ways and resort to violence. Soon after, prisons had been attacked, and a general situation of lawlessness appears to prevail in the country. Reports emerged of Awami League cadres, and Chattra League (the students union wing of the Awami league) conducting attacks on Hindu minorities and their places of worship, as a means to stoke communal hatred and discredit the movement. In opposition to this, students unions and civic volunteers have gathered to protect minorities and places of worship.
It becomes clear from the emerging picture that a concerted strategy is in place to play a game of divide and rule. Restoring bourgeois right wing parties and their reactionary allies, and inviting a discredited banker and champion of neo-liberalism to lead the government, is part of the army’s strategy. The objective being to sow enough chaos and disorder to finally justify maintaining military control, and ensuring the capitalist status quo remains unchanged after Sheik Hasina is gone.
In the long run, there may even be an effort led by India to rehabilitate the Awami League and bring back things to the way they have been, undoing the hard work and sacrifice of the students and youth.
The current situation and the way forward
Calm is slowly returning to the capital Dhaka but scenes of violence and lawlessness in other parts of Bangladesh are still common. Attacks on minorities by right wing lumpens and those linked with pro-Jamaat groups are surfacing. Students and civil society members have formed defense committees for temples and Hindu homes to foil the attacks against minorities. Indian media is focusing chiefly on this issue, while the right wing BJP and it’s paid trolls on the internet are spreading false news to influence Indian public opinion against Bangladesh. Conditions are being created in India to justify intervention, or to use this issue and spread hate against Indian Muslims.
The lawless situation in the country is a direct result of the tactic of the army and the Awami League, along with it’s international backers. However, it is unlikely that this will last very long. The army is helping restore some semblance of order for it’s own interests, while the students protesters have taken the mantle to maintain order in the streets, and protect against vandalism. The effort to keep communal unity is one of the greatest strengths of the current protests, had it not been for the unity of Hindu and Muslims in Bangladesh, the protests would not have succeeded in overthrowing the Awami League regime. The students have shown a degree of political acumen in intervening this way, and foiling the strategy of divide and rule. Even the Jamaat I Islami, known for its hatred for non-muslim minorities and violence, has come out calling for calm and to defend Hindu temples. This does not show any change in its basic character, but the influence of the student protesters and the pressure to keep inter-communal unity.
The people of Bangladesh have shown that they would not settle for the state of affairs that existed in the early 1990s or 2001 when the BNP ruled the country. Neither would they accept continued military rule, the army knows this, which is why they have conceded to the students, and avoided any crackdowns.
As things stand now, the situation is still acutely pre-revolutionary. The power of the masses prevail over the state, but there is no visible organ of dual power on the streets. The protest emerged as a student protest, with support from the working class, and barreled into a popular mass movement against an autocratic regime, but it was not led by organizations of the working class. The students provided political direction, but lacking a revolutionary perspective, or organized leadership, it has not been able to prevent the lawlessness that emerged from the freeing of prisoners and right wing political leaders.
At the core of the protests in Bangladesh, is the need for unity between working class, youth and peasantry, under a revolutionary program. In the context of Bangladesh, that means first and foremost controlling the commanding heights of the economy, The full nationalization of the textile sector, repudiating foreign debt, comprehensive land reforms, and the building of a secular state which can guarantee safety of life and limb to all.
An important democratic victory has been won in Bangladesh with a victory against the autocratic Sheik Hasina government and the forces of Indian capital. The next victory must be won against the army, and Islamist reactionaries, to secure this revolution. The people of Bangladesh must learn from the revolutionary process in Sri Lanka which failed, it failed so because they were not bold enough to seize power, and lacked any agenda beyond the immediate political goals. The same must not repeat in Bangladesh !
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