By Mazdoor Inquilab
The Indian elections of 2024 were a pivotal moment in the nation’s history. The BJP was poised not only to win a historic consecutive third term, but also maintain it’s dangerous super majority in parliament. The slogan of the BJP was ‘400 paar’ meaning across 400, they had set a target to secure 400 seats out of the 543 seat parliament. Doing so would have given it a super majority, an absolute majority in parliament giving it the power to push for constitutional amendments. Such power would have allowed it to finally implement its Hindutva agenda.
The consequences would have been disastrous had they succeeded. Fortunately, the BJP was robbed of this victory. Far from ‘400’ they have secured 240 seats. While this still leaves the BJP the largest single party in the parliament, they are 32 seats short of a parliamentary majority. The BJP led NDA alliance numbered 294 seats.
As things stand now, the BJP is reliant on its alliance partners to maintain their coalition government. This brings back things to a state of affairs that existed in the last Congress government in 2009, when a Congress dominated coalition held power. At any moment, this ruling coalition can come undone if the three or four of the largest alliance partners decide to defect to the Congress led UPA or pull out support. For the first time since 2014, Modi’s rule stands on shaky grounds.
The largest opposition party today is the Congress party leading a coalition of parties that has secured 240 seats in parliament. This presents an influential oppositional bloc that can foil any attempt to steamroll legislations as the BJP had been doing so far.
While the bourgeois oppositional bloc has returned in force, the Stalinist parties remain completely stagnated. While they have failed to regain any ground in their erstwhile bastions in Eastern India they have gained a bit in Rajasthan, and remain firm in their pockets in South India. Overall, the trajectory of the Stalinist parties remains one of decline in the electoral sphere. In a surprise twist, the Maoist parties have gained in the Eastern state of Bihar.
Arguably the biggest winner from the elections is the TMC of West Bengal. While the BJP’s rising tide appears to have been stemmed in these elections, the BJP has been able to build a base in the state of West Bengal. This marks the emergence of a reactionary wave in the state which has historically been a bastion of oppositional and progressive politics in India.
While there is much relief among many to see the BJP lose its super majority, it is worth remembering that the BJP led NDA coalition still rules the country, and the reactionary tide which had emerged with the BJP victory in 2014 remains in place, as does the vast propaganda and organizational infrastructure it has created over the last ten years remain intact.
This election also asserts the bourgeois control over the opposition, with the only other working class parties in the form of the Stalinist parties being relegated to the margins.
Causes of the BJP’s defeats
The BJP, which had been riding high on a super majority for the last ten years has been humbled by the results of this election. From over three hundred seats in parliament, they have been reduced to 240. This means, the BJP can no longer form a government on it’s own and has to depend on coalition partners to form a stable government.
The biggest losses in seats came from Northern India, West Bengal, and Maharashtra. These represent the three largest constituencies in parliament. While the causes of these defeats are varied, one common thread in all of them, is the discontent felt by a large section of Indian voters who have made the BJP pay for their arrogance, failed promises to provide jobs, and brazen embrace of the billionaire oligarchy.
Persecuted religious minorities and Dalits found common cause against the BJP once their casteist Hindutva agenda was exposed, by their own actions no less. The hate towards Muslims, and the increased discrimination against Dalits pulled together a powerful anti-Hindutva bloc which also contributed to the defeats of the BJP in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. Meanwhile in West Bengal, where a sizeable Muslim minority exists, voted in large numbers against the BJP who were unable to channel the discontent against the state’s ruling bourgeois party the TMC. Here, the BJP’s seat share was reduced from a competitive 19 of 42 seats to a mere 12.
The BJP’s power has been in decline throughout India since the farmers’ agitation and its preceding anti-CAA agitation. The appeals to Hindutva and nationalism have failed to sway the masses as it did in 2014 and 2019, and now the BJP stands humbled. However, it must be remembered that while the larger Hindutva agenda has been foiled for now, the BJP remains in power.
A sizeable section of the population voted for more immediate regional issues, and the reactionary core support of the BJP were successfully mobilized by the communal appeal of the BJP. In states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, such appeals were rewarded with sweeping victories. Even in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra where the BJP lost, it retained a large number of seats.
Some of these victories can be said to be the result of large scale rigging. Videos emerged of BJP supporters recording their tampering with electronic voting machines (EVMs). In other cases non-BJP candidates weren’t even allowed to file their nomination. Instances of such rigging were seen in Varanasi, Surat and Indore.
The BJP was overconfident and buoyed by the false belief that they could win a super majority. This false belief was fueled further by exit polls which predicted that the BJP would be able to maintain its super majority and gain at least over 300 seats in parliament. The exit poll predictions created a rally in the share market with even the home minister calling on people to buy shares. The crash happened as soon as the actual results came out. The BJP fell far short of a super majority, and the new government which formed was a coalition. The hubris of the BJP was destroyed, and they stand humbled. However, even this result would not have been achieved, had the BJP not had the support from the election commission, it’s monopoly over election funding, and the influence it wields over the bureaucracy and governmental institutions.
Ultimately even these were not enough to give the BJP the sweeping victory it sought. It had suffered a series of failures in state elections in the aftermath of the farmers’ agitation. The national elections too reflected the discontent of farmers, and the impact of the farmers’ agitation.
The farmers’ agitation
The farmers’ agitation remains one of the most important mobilizations in India in recent years. The agitation began in December of 2020 against the passage of three farm laws. Much like the Labour Codes, the abrogation of Article 370, the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act, and the sudden declaration of demonetization, the BJP government had leveraged it’s super majority in parliament to pass whatever laws they wanted and acted to the interests of their biggest benefactors like Adani and Reliance Corporations.
The core demand of the agitation was the repeal of the three farm laws which promoted the aggressive penetration of ‘free market’ forces, and the furthering of big agro business interests to take over trade and production of agriculture. The second core demand of the agitation was the implementation of MSP (Minimum Support Price) for procurements. The agricultural crisis in North India, which is the culmination of decades of unsustainable agricultural practices and the control of trade by agro business. The decline of North India’s agriculture together with a crisis of unemployment, created the objective conditions for the farmers’ agitation.
The power and organization of this agitation made it so they sustained through the COVID pandemic, suffering the worst excesses and violence. This agitation was notable not just for the numbers and power it amassed, but for the fact that it was consummated and led entirely by an independent farmer’s organization. No mainstream party had leadership of the agitation. The lack of political leadership and vision could be said to be one of its weaknesses, but it also ensured independence from the failing leadership of the mainstream bourgeois parties and Stalinists.
The protests appeared at a time when the BJP was at the peak of their power, and seemed unshakeable. The anti-CAA protests had just been crushed, the Labour Codes remained strong and left unchallenged, Kashmir was turned into a giant prison with mass arrests and internet blackouts. The government made the lives of millions of migrant workers hell by their arbitrary declarations of lockdowns, and total mismanagement of transport indirectly causing thousands of migrant worker deaths due to accident, fatigue or starvation. Yet, it remained unshakably in power.
The farmers’ agitation is doubly significant for not only challenging the BJP government, but breaking its illusion of hegemonic power. When the government was forced to repeal the three farm laws, it was a victory that was felt by everyone. It was suddenly possible to beat the BJP.
The latent discontent started to grow more overt as now the people had a model and inspiration to replicate. The beleaguered bourgeois opposition parties saw here an opportunity, to replicate the situation of 2012 and 2014 when the BJP was successful in channeling public discontent against Congress rule to take power. The BJP could only really respond to this challenge in three ways: increase it’s control over electoral institutions, play divide and rule by appealing to Hindutva and mobilizing it’s reactionary support base, and outright repression of political rivals.
Despite these tactics, the BJP kept losing state level elections, first in West Bengal in 2021, then in Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Maharashtra and Haryana. The farmers’ bodies took a decision to campaign against the BJP during the national elections. The extent of its influence is debatable, but the results before us are not.
The farmers’ agitation was the first and most decisive jolt to the Hindutva project and to the BJP’s absolute power. The bourgeoisie was forced to shift strategy, the Congress as a more ‘soft’ and welfarist alternative now seemed more desirable.
The leftist farmers’ union the All India Kisan Sabha played a key role in the organizing of the farmers’ agitation. The All India Kisan Sabha is linked with the CPIM, but like most CPIM linked organizations, there is a gulf between the party and the union. The Stalinists had failed to channel the energy of the mobilization into political gains and this showed clearly in the elections that occurred right after the farmer’s agitation.
The BJP has been beaten back, but not Hindutva
It might be a relief for many that the BJP’s arrogance has been humbled, and that they’ve been robbed of the super majority in parliament, it is worth remembering the organizational and ideological backbone of the BJP remains intact. The RSS and the larger Hindutva movement, is stronger today than it has ever been.
The roots of the Hindutva movement lay in the anxieties of the most reactionary layers of the Hindu Upper caste, landed gentry, labour aristocracy and intelligentsia. The Hindu Mahasabha being the first Hindutva organization, was founded in 1915 and the RSS, the largest Hindutva organization, was founded in 1925. They never participated in the independence struggle, with Savarkar himself inciting Hindus to forsake the independence struggle and join the British war effort in WWII.
While fascism provides the organizational template for the Hindutva organizations, the core of their ideology is rooted in caste hegemony, and the maintenance of upper caste dominance over Hindu society.
Over the period of BJP rule, we have seen the RSS actively work for the BJP, providing much of their leadership and cadre for the party to use. The BJP which was born by combining a right wing breakaway faction of the Congress party (the Congress O) and the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, today has fewer traits of the former, and more and more of the latter. The RSS has been successful in increasing it’s control and influence over the party and it shows in its pursuit of a more overtly Hindutva posturing.
It is worth mentioning, that in the new government formed by the Modi government, there is not one Muslim, Sikh, Buddhist or Christian member of parliament. Upper caste Hindus are over represented in the cabinet with scheduled castes, scheduled tribes being underrepresented. This is the government which rules India today, where over 16% of the population has no representation.
This represents a victory for the Hindutva agenda, they have succeeded in pushing out religious minorities out of representation in parliament.
The largest opposition party, the Congress, does have Muslim and religious minorities as members of parliament, but less than the proportion of Muslims in the population. Among other things, this highlights the inadequacy of the Congress party, which may posture in favour of religious minorities, but lacks in action.
Over the five decades that the Congress has had power, they have failed to clamp down on the RSS, or dismantle the Hindutva ideology. Religious minorities, Dalits and scheduled tribes remained marginalized or grew poorer. The Congress harps on the temporary ban that was imposed on the RSS right after Gandhi’s assassination, failing to point out that the ban was lifted soon after. Even after anti-Muslim pogroms took place often at the instigation of the RSS, the Congress government failed to take action. The RSS and BJP were in the lead on the Babri Masjid campaign, which culminnated in the demolition of the historical Babri mosque in Ayodhya, and riots which killed over a thousand people.
The Congress’ failure opened up the field for the Hindutva movement to emerge from the fringes of electoral politics into the mainstream through the BJP. They would win power in 1998. Even after the defeat of the BJP and being out of power for 10 years in the centre, the BJP returned in force in 2014. It remains in power or even grew in power in several states, and it has complete dominance over the mineral rich Eastern state of Orissa. Their power remains unchecked in Assam, where the BJP has pursued a vicious deportation campaign against so-called illegal immigrants, deprived millions of citizenship and thrown many in detention camps. The results in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh were foregone conclusions, where the BJP’s iron grip has resulted in such brazen rigging, where oppositional candidates could not even file their nomination.
Defeating the BJP electorally is proven to be quite doable, and repeatedly so, despite all the institutional support and money power. It is defeating Hindutva that is the greater challenge and remains as one of our foremost challenge today.
The bourgeoisie controls the opposition
The 2014 wipe out of the Congress party reduced its seats in parliament from over 200 to a paltry 44. It was a dramatic turn around for the party that had dominated Indian politics since before independence. The party of Gandhi and Nehru were reduced to less than a shadow of its former self. For some the Congress party was written off, and the future would remain with the BJP. The Congress’ leadership was in crisis mode scrambling to salvage whatever it could of its influence.
The fall of the Congress was matched by the equally dramatic wipe out of the left parties in the elections. However, the Congress has managed to recover, unlike the leftist, Stalinist parties.
If one measures the income of parties, the Congress stands at second position compared to the BJP in overall funding. The old preferred choice of the Indian bourgeoisie remains favoured, at least to some extent. Should the BJP grow too powerful for the liking of India’s ruling oligarchy, they have an option to fall back on in the form of the Congress.
As things stand now, there is no non-bourgeois voice in parliament. The Indian parliament had always been one for the billionaires, but since 2014 it is even more so. The strengthening of the Congress and it’s allies in numerous regional parties, is a cause for celebration for some, especially those ignorant of the importance of class struggle in society. In truth, it is a show of power of the bourgeoisie, who have control over both ruling government and the opposition. An old style bonapartism of the era of Indira Gandhi will not be returning in the reign of Narendra Modi, this much has been assured by the current results. Whether the pattern remains in the next national elections or not remains to be seen.
The success of the Congress party can be attributed to two key factors. Aside from the benefit of having a large organizational presence and backing from sectors of the bourgeoisie, the Congress has also succeeded this time in channelizing popular discontent against the Modi government and it’s arrogance.
The defeat of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh was aided by it’s brazen developmental activities in cities like Ayodhya where thousands of houses, hundreds of old temples, were destroyed in demolition drives to build Modi’s idealized temple pilgrimage destination. The locals of Ayodhya did not benefit from such rampant redevelopment, but builders made a killing. While Modi kept harping on Hindutva, and fear mongering over Muslims, people went jobless and faced agrarian crisis.
The Congress and its ally the Samajwadi Party have swept the seats for Uttar Pradesh, giving the BJP a major defeat. This was arguably the most decisive turn in the elections. The defeat of the BJP was replicated in several other key states, especially Maharashtra, Punjab and Haryana, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu.
The failure of the BJP in North Indian states was decisive in giving us these election results. In all these states, the agrarian distress had fueled the farmer’s agitation.
The failure of the Stalinists
One of the most significant political developments in the last two decades has been the weakening of the Stalinist parties in India. After reaching a peak of 52 seats in the parliament, and control over three states in India. Since then, the Stalinists have declined to 5 seats in parliament, and barely holding on to the state of Kerala, where the Congress party has swept the polls.
The decisive turn was the Nandigram and Singur peasant uprising against forcible land acquisition for multinational corporations. The movement was hijacked by the TMC and used as fuel to propel it to power, it has remained in power in the state of West Bengal since the state elections of 2011.
The 2009 elections saw much of the political gains of the Stalinist parties wiped out. The Congress party increased it’s dominance, while the CPIM collapsed, losing their grip over West Bengal. The defeat is a culmination of its policy of throwing its support for the Congress party, and whatever bourgeois alternative to the BJP.
A cornerstone of the CPIM’s policy has been rallying the working class and peasantry behind whatever it concerns the progressive bourgeois alternative. This policy has devolved into a policy of lesser evilism, with the CPIM throwing its full support behind the Congress party and the INDIA alliance. This appears to be heading towards liquidation.
This is not to say, the Stalinist parties are necessarily weak, or that they are incapable of mobilizing the masses. The massive ‘insaaf’ rally in Kolkata a year ago shows the CPIM linked students and youth organizations can still mobilize thousands. The same can be said of the All India Kisan Sabha, linked with the CPIM and the CITU. These organizations have membership in the hundreds of thousands, and have been able to mobilize millions in protests.
However, this energy almost never translates politically. Despite the DYFI and SFI rallies in Kolkata, the Stalinist parties got no seats. Their confused liquidationist position of supporting the Congress led INDIA alliance as a progressive alternative, meant they could not effectively challenge the TMC which was part of the alliance. Their support for the Congress also led to a wipe out in the critical state of Kerala, while they remained a failure in their one time bastion in Tripura.
While the Stalinists may not have much of a voice in parliament any more, or political clout as once was, it would be wrong to conclude they are exhausted. Stalinist parties in India are in decline, but are not yet exhausted.
The changes in the political conditions and our approach
Bourgeois elections are not an exact expression of the masses’ will, it is a distorted expression. The Indian elections are no exception to this. However, one inescapable conclusion must be made, that struggle will always bear fruit. Revolutionaries must remember this as we adapt our tactics and strategies to the changed conditions.
The humbling of the BJP owes more to the farmers’ heroic agitation in 2020 than it does to any winning political strategy of the corrupt bourgeois parties.
It must also be concluded that no matter how hegemonic a party might appear, no matter how thorough it’s control over institutions, how much money it gets, how many cadres it can mobilize, they can still face defeat at the hands of people. The defeat of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, and especially in the constituency of Feyzabad where the Ayodhya Ram temple is located, is an embarrassing defeat for Hindutva.
At the same time, we must acknowledge that while the BJP has been humbled, it has not been ousted from power. They still hold a majority in parliament, and still have enormous influence over mainstream media. The largest news corporations are linked with pro-BJP corporations, or are led by anchors with Hindutva sympathies. Right wing narratives are pushed every night across the airwaves.
At the same time, with this electoral performance, the BJP’s aura of invincibility has been punctured. This is one proof of mass discontent existing, and that can be channeled politically. The farmers’ agitation must open our eyes to the looming agrarian distress deepening across Northern India along with the crisis facing the youth. The rise of unemployment together with neo-liberal model focusing on privatization at the expense of public services, has created miserable conditions for youth. While their anger could be channeled for some time towards reactionary ends, this could not be sustained, no matter the amount of mass media support amplifying right wing propaganda.
As a consequence of the national elections, the prestige and appeal of bourgeois parties, including regional bourgeois parties may increase. This will pose a new set of challenges for building a revolutionary alternative. The bourgeoisie has total control over the parliamentary opposition, and has succeeded in strengthening it. This gives them a potent weapon to dilute class anger, diverting it towards identity politics or towards reformism.
It must be a key goal for revolutionary forces to challenge them, and call out their hypocrisy. We must oppose the politics of the Stalinists which keep diverting the masses towards these bourgeois parties as the bulwark against Hindutva reaction. The truth is, their opposition to Hindutva, if any, is only skin deep and opportunistic and it shows most clearly when politicians from these parties defect to the BJP to save their skins or get lured for money.
Our focus must be to build support among the youth workers, students and rural classes of peasant and agrarian workers. This is the bulwark of revolutionary politics. At the same time, we must build alliances with oppressed groups and oppressed nationalities. The United Front of workers, youth, peasants, agricultural workers, Dalits, minorities and oppressed peoples of Kashmir and the North East is what must be built to stand against the forces of Hindutva.
