COP 30: UN Report Shows Failure of the Paris Agreement and That We Are on the Path to Climate Collapse
Capitalism's inherent contradictions threaten our planet; only a revolutionary shift can avert ecological collapse.
As heads of state and negotiators arrive in Belém for the 30th United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP 30), a warning from the UN echoes: the world is about to permanently exceed the limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a threshold considered extremely dangerous for global warming.
According to the new report from United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), even if all commitments made since the Paris Agreement are fulfilled, the average temperature of the planet is expected to rise between 2.5°C and 2.9°C by the end of the century. In other words, the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is gone. And with it, the belief that it would be enough to “adjust the course” of green capitalism to save the planet has also collapsed.
The numbers are compelling. The UNEP estimates that the chances of limiting warming to 1.5°C are currently zero; to keep it below 2°C, only 8%. Even meeting the “minimum” mitigation targets would only reduce the chances of collapse by a statistically insignificant degree. In short, we are heading towards a scenario of 2.3°C to 2.5°C of warming, even if all current promises are fulfilled.
Capitalism, as a careful reading of the report indicates, is unable to stop the catastrophe it itself has caused.
The fossil fuel engine keeps accelerating
The contrast between the diplomatic/political discourse and reality is striking. Instead of reducing fossil fuel production, economic powers are expanding production. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil production is expected to reach 105.8 million barrels per day in 2025 (2.7 million more than in 2024) and reach 107.9 million in 2026.
The Production Gap Report 2025, also from the UN, confirms the gap: countries plan to produce 120% more oil, gas, and coal by 2030 than would be compatible with the 1.5°C target. While leaders speak about a “just energy transition,” the fossil fuel machine rolls forward, driven by billion-dollar profits.
On the brink of collapse
The effects are already visible. For the first time, in 2024, the global temperature has permanently surpassed the mark of 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. On the way to 2°C, the planet is approaching an irreversible tipping point: accelerated melting of polar ice caps, thawing of the permafrost (releasing ancient gasses and pathogens), collapse of biodiversity, and destruction of key ecosystems.
The Amazon, one of the planet’s main climate regulators, is also on the brink of collapse. Scientists warn that if between 20% and 25% of the forest is destroyed, it will stop absorbing carbon and start emitting greenhouse gases. Today, it has already lost about 17% of its original coverage. The Amazonian collapse would mean the failure of water regulation in South America, the multiplication of extreme weather events, and the spread of pandemics caused by ecological imbalances.
We are facing a civilizational crisis that threatens to disintegrate societies, destroy productive forces, and impose an unprecedented historical regression.
Lula’s speech at COP 30
The choice of Belém as the host of COP 30 should have symbolized a new Brazilian environmental leadership. But the country arrives at the event amid glaring contradictions.
On one side, the Bolsonaro far-right continues to be an open enemy of the environment, openly advocating for the invasion of indigenous lands, the dismantling of environmental legislation, and the resumption of the “boiada” (clearcutting cowboy ranchers) if it returns to power. On the other, the Lula government, although it adopts a supposedly “progressive” discourse, has reinforced policies that deepen environmental destruction.
In his opening speech at COP, Lula stated: “Accelerating the energy transition and protecting nature are the two most effective ways to curb global warming. I am convinced that, despite our difficulties and contradictions, we need roadmaps to, in a fair and planned manner, reverse deforestation, overcome dependence on fossil fuels, and mobilize the necessary resources for these goals.” Pretty words, but divorced from practice.
How do we reconcile the commitment to the energy transition with this government’s own enthusiasm for oil exploration in the Amazon? Studies show that if all the oil in the region is extracted and burned, between 4 and 13 billion tons of CO₂ would be released, equivalent to the combined emissions of China and the United States in 2020.
The contradictions do not stop there. Lula greeted the Amazon and its peoples in his speech, saying: “In the global imagination, there is no greater symbol of the environmental cause than the Amazon rainforest. Here flow the thousands of rivers and streams that make up the largest watershed on the planet. (…) Therefore, it is fair that it is the turn of the Amazonians to ask what is being done by the rest of the world to prevent the collapse of their home.”
But, in practice, the government advocates policies that bring the Amazon closer to collapse. Lula supports the paving of BR-319, which will be a deforestation corridor cutting through the heart of the forest, and the construction of Ferrogrão — a railway that will connect Mato Grosso to Pará to transport soy from agribusiness, cutting through indigenous areas and protected nature reserves. In addition, the privatization of waterways on the Madeira, Tocantins, and Tapajós rivers is advancing, transforming the largest Amazonian waterways into shipping routes for commodity exports.
These projects are a salvo of climate bombs that expand deforestation, perpetuate the extractivist model, and subjugate the country to the interests of international capital.
Meanwhile, the government is negotiating with Trump’s United States for the extraction of critical minerals and rare earths, and grants billion-dollar tax exemptions to data centers that consume enormous volumes of energy and water, with no social return.
Between rhetoric and the abyss
The contrast between green rhetoric and denialist practice reveals the structural impasse of Brazilian and global environmental politics. Capitalism, dependent on the infinite expansion of consumption and the extraction of finite resources, cannot resolve the climate crisis without negating itself.
COP 30, therefore, will be yet another showcase of empty promises. While leaders pose for photos and proclaim commitments, the fossil machine keeps spinning, accelerated, lubricated by profits and “progressive” rhetoric.
Belém is the symbolic stage of a global choice, to maintain the model that pushes the planet to collapse. The F3 tornado that destroyed a city in Paraná was yet another small demonstration that the future has already arrived. Either we take history into our own hands and overcome capitalism, or humanity will face an unprecedented catastrophe.
