The situation around Ukraine is increasingly tense. Putin and the U.S.-NATO alliance are both bringing troops into the region. And, under the guise of “Allied Resolution” exercises, Russian troops have been deployed in Belarus and military echelons are spread across Minsk. The current situation dates back to 2014, when, in response to the revolution in Ukraine, Putin launched a counter-revolutionary intervention, annexing Crimea and the Donbas.
By Ivan Razin
The Ukrainian government, due to its bourgeois class character, cannot consistently defend the country from Putin’s aggression. On the one hand, the Ukrainian bourgeoisie wants to continue doing business with the Russian oligarchs: capital from the aggressor country continues its profiteering in Ukraine. On the other hand, repelling Putin’s aggression and defeating the occupation is only possible if there is a people’s war and the general arming of the population, which would represent a risk for the Ukrainian oligarchs themselves. The bourgeois authorities in Ukraine are using the situation in the Donbas, including the current escalation, to portray themselves as defenders of the country, calling on foreign NATO troops and encouraging the West to put more pressure on Putin.
Western governments have advantageous relations with Putin, mainly in the area of Russian natural resource exploitation. They are unwilling to risk these benefits by defending Ukraine, just as they quietly allowed Putin to quell the Kazakh uprising. But the West is cynically and hypocritically using Putin’s aggression against Ukraine to expand its own military control over Eastern European countries, as well as to put pressure on Putin through Ukraine’s possible admission to NATO.
For Putin, due to the increasingly deplorable situation of workers in Russia, a “foreign policy success,” which helps further characterization of Russia as a great power, has now become almost his last justification in the eyes of the population. A serious foreign policy defeat, which would be the return of the Donbas to Ukraine or Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO, could have serious consequences for Russia’s domestic regime. For Putin, this is largely a matter of survival. If a deal with imperialism is not possible and the strengthened Ukrainian army launches an operation to regain the Donbas, or things move towards Ukraine joining NATO, Putin’s only real instrument of counter-attack would be a direct invasion and occupation of new and larger Ukrainian territories. This would undoubtedly deepen the confrontation with the West, on which Russia is deeply dependent both financially and technologically. For Putin, this is an extremely undesirable option, but in his situation, there is no other way out. And he makes this clear to the West, urging them not to force him to take extreme measures. So, on the one hand, the Western media are whipping up hysteria, contributing to Putin’s expansionist plans to take over Ukraine. On the other hand, the Russian troops being brought into the region are more than a show of force. They are also preparations for a direct invasion, albeit undesirable for Putin, but possible under certain circumstances.
Belarus
Lukashenko, whose dictatorship after the 2020 revolution is mainly based on Putin’s support, is not only accelerating the surrender of the country’s sovereignty to the Russian oligarchs, but he has fully and ardently taken over Putin’s foreign policy, including being anti-Ukraine. In the current situation, he shamefully opened Belarus’ doors to Russian military escalation. Lukashenko said that “if necessary, … exercises will be against Ukraine“. And that, if the Ukrainian army starts to retake Donbas, the Belarusian army will act “like the Russian army.” These were prepared answers to prepared questions from one of Putin’s two main propagandists, Solovyov, i.e. an explicit direct threat from Putin against Ukraine, from the North. And this is evidence that the exercises in Belarus are not just muscle play either, but that the area could become a springboard for invasion. “Working” with Putin’s help, Lukashenko is ready to throw Belarus into the fire of Putin’s criminal war against Ukraine. At the same time, Russian troops are likely to remain in Belarus to suppress possible uprisings in the country. And, behind the hypocritical anti-Western rhetoric, Lukashenko continues to religiously pay off the debts he has accumulated with Western bankers (as well as Putin), bleeding the country dry, which is why Belarusians are living worse and worse and the country’s productive structure is degrading. For all this, the dictatorship clamps down on the people. And this is facilitated by those “leftists” who opposed and continue to oppose the Belarusian revolution in 2020, thus covering up at the same time Lukashenko’s dictatorship, the Putin regime, and the profits of imperialist creditors.
In general, none of the above-mentioned parties needs a war in the region, and all would like to avoid it. But, firstly, the course of events may lead to war, even starting with exacerbations in the Donbas, where hostilities have never ceased and where governments (especially the Ukrainian one) do not fully control the armed groups. Secondly, in this situation, Eastern Europe is already filling up on both sides with military machines and foreign soldiers, which means further colonization of the whole region. Thirdly, on the part of the Putin regime, which plays the role of the international bunker of reaction on the territory of the former USSR and even beyond, this means expanding and training the apparatus for suppressing possible popular uprisings. No wonder Russian Defence Minister Shoigu and Lukashenko linked the arrival of Russian troops in Belarus with the CSTO’s intervention in Kazakhstan: “You correctly noted that January forced us to start exercises, controls, and joint work much earlier: it was Kazakhstan” (Shoigu’s words to Lukashenko).
By resolving their own interests, the Western imperialists and Putin not only deepen the colonization of Eastern Europe but also bring the region to the brink of a full-scale war. The national development of the countries in the region and the improvement of life is impossible under the boot of a foreign military. It is in the common interest of their peoples that there should be no foreign troops on the territories of our countries, neither NATO nor CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) two military apparatuses in the service of the great powers. Likewise, national development is also impossible under the domination of the finances of great powers, which export the fruits of workers’ and people’s labor in our countries.
The countries of Eastern Europe are constant victims of the domination of great powers and their policies. This must end. But in order to achieve victory, it is important that we, workers and people of Belarus, understand clearly what kind of enemy we have before us. Understand that the struggle is going to be serious, as evidenced by the current situation. In this struggle, the ordinary Ukrainians (with their revolution and the struggle for the liberation of the country from occupation), the Kyrgyz (with their revolutions), the Kazakhs (with their uprising), the ordinary Poles and Lithuanians who showed so much solidarity with our revolution are on the same side with the Belarusians. And this serious and international struggle against strong enemies requires appropriate approaches, preparation, and organization: an internationalist revolutionary party that aims at a free and independent Belarus in the hands of its workers and people. We lacked this organization in our revolution in 2020, we lack it now, and we must go step by step to solve this problem.
Down with NATO and CSTO! For an Eastern Europe free of foreign troops!
No war against Ukraine!
Russian troops out of Belarus!
Down with the anti-national, anti-working class capitalist dictatorship of Putin’s henchman Lukashenko!
