By RICHARD WESLEY
One year ago, ”Farmers for Trump” signs peppered the landscape in rural America. Over half a year into the second Trump administration, the enthusiasm for the election of 2024 has considerably abated in farm country. Policy decisions coming from Washington have dealt a series of blows to rural populations.
Tariffs and instability in export markets
The on-again, off-again tariffs imposed by Trump have shaken once reliable trade markets. As far back as April, Forbes cited a report from the American Enterprise Institute on the potential impact to agriculture: “In South Dakota, 87% of the land is used for farming, including corn, soybeans, and wheat, as well as dairy and beef products. Major crops include corn, soybeans, and wheat, and the state also produces beef and dairy products. Its neighbor North Dakota is also an agricultural powerhouse that produces significant amounts of grain and other crops. Iowa, Nebraska, and Montana round out the top five states with the highest proportion of farmers. These are the states most likely to feel the pain from tariffs that impact farmers.” Ironically, these are all “red” states that voted heavily in support of Trump.
The tariffs are not only affecting markets for produce (outputs), but they are driving higher prices for inputs—i.e., agrochemical imports, seeds, and farm machinery. These items face tariffs of 20% or more, making it costlier to bring agricultural products to market where they already face retaliatory tariffs. For example, costs for new farm machinery is up 60% over the last eight years—and rising, due to tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Moreover, the uncertainty of market conditions is causing once primary trade partners in the agricultural sector to seek other less volatile exporters. The most telling example of this effect is what happened in the first Trump administration when Trump imposed tariffs on China, and China responded with retaliatory tariffs on soybeans. According to Forbes, in the period prior to the tariffs, Brazil and the United States each provided 40% to 45% of Chinese soybeans imports. After the tariffs, Chinese importers shifted their business away from the United States to Brazil. Trump tried to soften the blow to American soybean farmers with a $61 billion relief package to farmers who suffered losses during this period. But it isn’t all that easy for market consumers to return once they have established a more reliable partner in Brazil.
The same could be said of other commodities, but it is unclear how or whether the administration could provide relief as before. While farmers are being sold on the idea of tariffs bringing long-term benefits, it may simply be a ploy to defer the damage being felt by the short-term effects.
Immigration policy damage
Another source of serious harm that is being inflicted on the agricultural sector is related to the Trump administration’s immigration policy. The violent ICE raids and the constant threats of arrest and deportation have terrified farm laborers and disrupted their lives. Many farmworkers and their families have been thrown into extreme financial hardship and made to face severe psychological trauma. Children who are U.S. citizens have often been separated from their undocumented parents.
Simultaneously, the wave of raids, detentions, and deportations has affected the agricultural market, as it has suppressed the supply of both skilled and unskilled workers. According to Farmonaut, a farm technology company, about 50% of agricultural workers in the U.S. are undocumented immigrants.
For example, tomato farmers in Florida have suffered a severe shortage of migrant labor, causing many to plow their crops under. As reported by Moneywise on July 20, Tony DiMare, who owns 4000 acres of tomato farms across Florida and California, has had to mow over his Florida tomatoes and leave them to rot, due to Trump’s immigration policies.
The labor shortage means that Florida farmers must pay more for labor while, at the same time, they’re getting less money for their produce due to Trump’s tariffs. Farmonaut also notes that “the impact of tariffs and immigration policy will have a knock-on effect in grocery stores. If U.S. farmers don’t have enough workers to harvest crops, Americans will have to buy more imported produce and pay more, due to the tariffs assessed.”
A similar scenario is being played out in Oregon where cherry orchard farmers are watching a promising crop rotting on the trees. Laborers, along with those immigrants who have the skills to operate mechanized equipment for the harvest, are not showing up. Instead they have been intimidated by the prospect of ICE arrests, should they brave the journey north from California.
In dairy country (think Wisconsin and Vermont), the intensive labor required to run dairy operations has been stifled by the fear of ICE raids. Many of these workers are year-round employees and are easy targets for the quota-driven ICE agents.
Medicaid cuts causing rural hospitals to close
Another blow to rural America is the cuts to Medicaid triggered by the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” signed into law by Donald Trump on July 4, 2025. This reconciliation bill will lead to a reduction of approximately $911 billion over the next 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Of this amount, over $137 billion will be lost in rural areas. Estimates are that 10.3 million people will lose Medicaid benefits.
In addition, when cuts to the ACA (Affordable Care Act), which created an alternative to private insurance, are included, the number of people losing their insurance rises to 16 million. As noted by Rokosz Most in the Barn Raiser newsletter, “This put enormous strain on rural hospitals already underpaid by re-imbursements offered by federal healthcare programs, limited in the services they can provide, frequently understaffed, and frequently serving primarily those community members in or near the verge of poverty.” Already, rural hospitals have suffered a wave of closings, with more to come.
Resistance in farm country
One of the first signs of farmer resistance occurred in the rural community of Hadley, in Western Massachusetts. Approximately 300 citizens gathered in late March to protest the cuts to federal programs supporting farmers. One example was the loss of funds for the Local Purchasing Assistance Program (LPAP), an allocation of $1 billion. The LPAP helps local farms to market a wide range of produce to schools, food banks, and other food access programs, in Massachusetts amounting to $12 million for the second half of FY2025. Due to a loss of 4,000 acres of farmland in the region during the previous two years because of a combination of both drought and floods, these funds would have helped offset production deficits.
Another farmer protested that she stood to lose $120,000 from the breach of her Rural Energy for America contract—money she had already borrowed on the promise of reimbursement and started to spend in compliance with their contract.
Since the Hadley protest, we’ve seen a crescendo of unrest elsewhere across the nation, with farmers showing up at town halls to confront congressional representatives in “red” districts about the damage being wrought by government policies. Most recently, there has been a surge of anger over a $20 billion bailout given to Argentina, which is a major competitor in the soybean trade with China. The bailout was given as a method of boosting the domestic standing of far-right Argentine President Milei, whom the Trump administration sees as an ally in promoting the objectives of U.S. imperialism in Latin America.
While the Trump administration keeps speaking of love for U.S. farmers, there is little evidence of that being translated into relief for the crisis which is hurting rural America. Many small farmers are unsure of being able to sustain their life in the multi-generational traditions of rural enterprise.
American consumers are already feeling the pinch, as prices are rising for basic grocery items. Indeed, the crisis in farm country will have a ripple effect reaching the tables of working-class families. It will be up to working-class America to stand with rural partners against the greed of the ruling class—more concerned with the cuts that lead to tax breaks for their opulent lifestyles.
Moreover, rural America needs a political option that truly represents their interests. It wasn’t so long ago that agricultural workers and independent farmers recognized that their real enemy wasn’t the immigrant, but rather the banks and corporate entities that controlled their lives. In the early 20th century, independent socialist and radical populist parties (like the Farmer-Labor Party, founded in 1919) were strong in the rural Midwest. It is time once again for industrial workers and working-class families to unite in common cause with small farmers against the capitalist behemoth.
