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Weather agencies around the world have confirmed that an El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon is forming and rapidly gaining strength in the Pacific Ocean. It is expected to reach a \u201cstrong\u201d level between July and September, increasing the risk of heat waves, droughts, and extreme rainfall in various regions of the planet. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN\u2019s climate organization, has already issued a global alert regarding the rapid intensification of this phenomenon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El Ni\u00f1o is a climate event caused by the warming of the equatorial waters of the Pacific that occurs in cycles ranging from two to seven years. This occurrence disrupts atmospheric circulation, and its effects are felt across the globe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This time, scientists are referring to a \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d the most intense since 1877. That year, the phenomenon triggered massive droughts that led to crop failures, famines, and the deaths of millions of people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But at present, the intensity of El Ni\u00f1o is a consequence of global warming caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions released into the atmosphere, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas, and coal. Because of global warming, 2023, 2024, and 2025 were the hottest on record. For this reason, recent El Ni\u00f1o events have become increasingly intense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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One way to anticipate what may lie ahead is to look at the impacts of the most recent El Ni\u00f1o episode, 2023 and 2024, which triggered extreme weather events and catastrophic consequences in various parts of the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In North America, intense heat waves contributed to the largest wildfires in recent history. In Kenya, extreme rainfall caused devastating floods that affected more than 412,000 people. In India, successive heat waves caused several cities to record temperatures above 50 \u00b0C, resulting in thousands of deaths and numerous cases of heatstroke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As for Brazil, El Ni\u00f1o is generally known to cause increased rainfall in the South, prolonged droughts in the North and Northeast, and an intensification of extreme rainfall and heat waves in the Southeast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To understand the magnitude of their impacts, one need only recall the consequences of the most recent episode, between 2023 and 2024. During that period, the country suffered devastating floods in Rio Grande do Sul in May 2024 and the worst drought on record. The extreme drought fueled the spread of wildfires, many of which were set by large rural landowners linked to agribusiness, who took advantage of the weather conditions to expand the use of fire in forested areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The result was an unprecedented fire season in the Amazon, the Pantanal, the Cerrado, and the Atlantic Forest, with smoke spreading across vast urban and agricultural areas, particularly in the Southeast. By the end of 2024, the country had recorded nearly 30 million hectares burned\u2014an area equivalent to the combined size of the states of Rio de Janeiro and S\u00e3o Paulo\u2014according to the Annual Fire Report (RAF) prepared by MapBiomas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In addition, severe storms were also recorded, causing the tragic landslides in S\u00e3o Sebasti\u00e3o (2023) and in the mountainous regions of the state of Esp\u00edrito Santo (2023\u20132024). There were also intense heat waves and a surge in arbovirus epidemics, such as dengue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Europe is already feeling the effects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, scientists warn that what may happen in the coming months could be much worse. A Super El Ni\u00f1o could have even more catastrophic and deadly consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Heat waves are already killing thousands of people in Europe. Extreme heat disrupts the human body\u2019s functioning and can be fatal for the elderly, children, and those with cardiovascular diseases. Massive wildfires, energy crises, and an intensification of extreme heat are also expected during the European summer, which began a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Capitalism’s Decision Is Climate Barbarism<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The truth is that capitalism cannot prevent the catastrophe it itself set in motion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A report by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), published in November 2025, underscores the accelerating pace of the climate crisis and the imminent failure to meet the targets set out in the Paris Agreement. According to the report, even if all current national commitments were fully met, the global average temperature would rise by between 2.5 \u00b0C and 2.9 \u00b0C by the end of this century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Under this scenario, several tipping points would be crossed, causing global warming to spiral out of control. A world warming by more than 2 \u00b0C would be ravaged by pandemics, destroyed coastal cities, collapsed forests, and vast continental areas rendered uninhabitable due to extreme heat. One such region would be Bel\u00e9m itself, the host city of COP30. Scientific projections indicate that the city could become uninhabitable as early as 2070 if the 2 \u00b0C threshold is exceeded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The projections are even more alarming when considering the current trajectory of emissions. According to the report, the chances of limiting global warming to 1.5 \u00b0C are already zero, and the probability of keeping it below 2 \u00b0C drops to just 8% if the world continues on its current mitigation path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Even in the most optimistic scenario\u2014that is, assuming full implementation of the climate targets countries have pledged so far\u2014the outlook is not encouraging: the probability of stabilizing global warming at 2 \u00b0C by 2050 is barely 25%, which serves as a stark warning about the inadequacy of current pledges and the urgency of taking much more far-reaching and immediate action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The report makes it clear that the window of opportunity to avoid the worst-case scenarios of climate collapse is rapidly closing, while governments remain far from implementing the necessary measures and plan to extract even more oil over the next decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In other words, the decision has already been made: the leaders of imperialism and the big capitalists will not prevent climate catastrophe, even if it means the murder and genocide of a large part of humanity. Only by overcoming capitalism and establishing social control over production can the worst be avoided.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n When Nature and Imperialism Collide<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n El Ni\u00f1o is a climate phenomenon that has been occurring for thousands of years, but scientists only began to understand it better in the 1960s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The largest and most devastating El Ni\u00f1o event on record occurred in 1877 and triggered a global famine that claimed the lives of between 30 and 50 million people, mainly in India, China, and Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, that catastrophe was exacerbated by the advance of colonial imperialism into those countries, which destroyed systems designed to prevent and combat hunger, such as food reserves. The integration of those countries into the global market also weakened traditional farmers and the economies of colonial and semicolonial nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Imperialism even took advantage of the catastrophe to create a global grain market: it seized the reserves that still existed in the affected countries and sold them on the international market, instead of using them to aid the victims of famine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The El Ni\u00f1o episode of 1877 demonstrates that disasters are not always purely natural, but rather are intertwined with existing forms of social production; in this case, with the emergence of a new stage of capitalism: imperialism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The victims of the famine paid the price for the changes imposed by that progress, in what was truly a colonial Holocaust that official history sought to keep hidden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Fossil Capitalism and Global Warming<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n More than a century later, we face the possibility of a Super El Ni\u00f1o, perhaps even more intense than the one in 1877. Unlike back then, as we have seen, its force is compounded by global warming caused by fossil-fuel capitalism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Scientists warn that the current El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon could accelerate global warming and raise the global average temperature above 1.5 \u00b0C\u2014the threshold that science deems necessary to prevent runaway global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Furthermore, a Super El Ni\u00f1o will find a world that is even more vulnerable, marked by decades of neoliberal policies that dismantled preventive measures and privatized natural resources such as water.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is a world where a large part of humanity lives in precarious conditions in large metropolises; where wars and genocides are \u2028multiplying\u2028; and where the major powers are disputing territories, energy resources, and minerals, reviving the old mechanisms of colonial domination within the framework of a decadent capitalism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The very same powers and large corporations that have historically driven the intensive exploitation of fossil fuels and natural resources will attempt to turn the climate catastrophe into a new frontier for capital accumulation\u2014an opportunity to expand their dominion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the same time, the climate catastrophe deepens social inequalities, exacerbates conflicts over access to land, water, and energy, intensifies forced migration, and exposes millions of people to hunger, disease, and environmental disasters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, these very contradictions can fuel the struggle of workers, indigenous peoples, Quilombola communities, peasants, and other oppressed sectors, raising social resistance to a new level and reigniting the debate over the direction of society in the face of the ecological crisis and the advance of imperialism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n Brazil\u2019s subordination to international financial capital is reflected in fiscal austerity and cuts to the budget allocated to natural disaster prevention policies. Data from the Federal Court of Accounts (TCU) show that, between 2012 and 2026, successive governments allocated 24,360 million reais to response and reconstruction efforts\u2014nearly three times the 9,620 million reais allocated to prevention. The disparity is even greater in terms of actual spending: 21,540 million reais were disbursed for response and reconstruction, compared to just 6,800 million reais for preventive measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Vulnerability of Municipalities<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n This imbalance between response and planning investment is dramatically reflected in the structure of Brazilian municipalities. According to the National Confederation of Municipalities (CNM), 68% of cities lack risk area mapping; 57% lack early warning systems; 44% lack monitoring equipment; and 46% lack professionals trained in disaster prevention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Given these figures, it is clear that the Brazilian government continues to act predominantly reactively, prioritizing reconstruction after tragedies rather than strengthening permanent policies for prevention, climate adaptation, and the reduction of socio-environmental risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This vulnerability is even more critical when one considers that more than 76.8% of municipalities lack any basic climate planning tools, while only 12.9% have published a Municipal Climate Adaptation Plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In addition to the lack of plans, more than one-third of the municipalities evaluated did not report any initiatives related to public participation in decisions regarding climate risks and adaptation. In the area of communication, the picture is also not encouraging: the survey shows that nearly 60% of municipal governments do not systematically use digital channels or social media to disseminate information on disaster prevention, alerts, or risk management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Funding Devastation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The municipal level is already showing signs of enormous fragility, and federal policies are making this situation even worse. In addition to dismantling prevention efforts, the federal government announced 525,000 million reais in subsidized rural loans for agribusiness (Plan Safra)\u2014money that, as always, will help fund the expansion of the agricultural frontier into the country\u2019s biomes. The power of the ruralist lobby did not come out of nowhere: it was financed with public money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Congress and Environmental Setbacks<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n In exchange for this funding, the National Congress has acted as a true enemy of the people and the environment. It passed the General Environmental Licensing Law (PL 2.159\/2021), dubbed by social movements as the \u201cDevastation Bill,\u201d considered the greatest setback in Brazil\u2019s environmental regulation in the last four decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And there are other attacks driven by the ruralist bloc, such as restrictions on satellite monitoring and the application of precautionary measures to halt environmental crimes in real time, as well as protections for offenders\u2019 assets in remote areas. Added to this is the attempt to strip environmental agencies (such as Ibama and ICMBio) of their technical and scientific autonomy, subordinating decisions on biodiversity conservation to the economic interests of the agribusiness sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the face of the catastrophe that El Ni\u00f1o and extreme weather events can cause, the time to act is now. Promises are not enough. We must fight and demand effective prevention and adaptation measures, starting with an end to fiscal austerity, which stifles public investment and prevents the development of a serious policy to protect the most vulnerable populations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A genuine emergency plan cannot be devised from the top down, with no regard for the reality of those who suffer the most. It must be built with popular participation and involve the sectors most exposed to disaster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The first step is to bring this debate to social movements, housing organizations, struggles over land, and labor unions. It is there, at the grassroots level, where we find those who face on a daily basis the conditions of vulnerability that the climate crisis will only exacerbate: the outskirts of large cities and the territories under siege by agribusiness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But this is a topic that requires more in-depth discussion and will be left for a future article.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\nSuper El Ni\u00f1o and Climate Collapse<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Present situation<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Lula\u2019s Government<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Zero prevention and billions for the enemies of climate<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
It’s time to take action.<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n
For a People’s Emergency Plan<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n