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The failed operation in Culiacan, generated a true political earthquake in the high spheres, which continues to replicate. This opened a new regime crisis that is far from over. The speech given, five days after the operation, by retired general Carlos Gaytán Ochoa, with deep criticism of the supreme head of the executive branch, in front of 500 retired generals in a periodic meeting convened by the Secretary of Defense, General Sandoval Rodríguez, produced a series of statements and interpretations of the entire political spectrum. AMLO’s first reaction was to say that Gaytán Ochoa had “absolute right to give his opinion.”

But over the weekend, Lopez Obrador’s messages circulated widely, stirring the ghost of a coup d’etat.

By: CST Mexico   –  Nov/07/2019

He presented as reference the overthrow and murder of Francisco I. Madero in 1913, to compare it to the “Fourth Transformation” he is heading and warned that “Here, there is not the slightest opportunity for the Huertas, the Francos, the Hitlers or the Pinochet. Today’s Mexico is not fertile ground for genocide, or for scoundrels  who implore it ”…

We do not share the historical analogies that the president makes. But his political diagnosis seems realistic to us: Today there is not the slightest opportunity here for the Pinochet, for genocide or for scoundrels who implore it. Why?

Precisely, for the reasons reactionary general Gaytán Ochoa laments: “We currently live in a politically polarized society, because… they accumulated great resentment for years”… “Today we have a government that represents approximately thirty million Mexicans, whose hope is change. A change that allows them to correct what they consider a deficit of the State for said population sector ”…

What polarization does Gaytán Ochoa talk about? He speaks of social discontent, of workers and popular hatred accumulated over years, which from 2014 to 2017 was heading towards an insurrection. The outrage for the Ayotzinapa 43 , for the attacks on  teachers, for the Nochixtlan massacre, for the Gasolinazo (fuel price increases ) – which forewarned hundreds of violent popular uprisings such as that of Ixmiquilpan – was temporarily channeled through the electoral route … And temporarily “ tied up the Tiger”.

But General Gaytán Ochoa went even further and confessed his current fear and helplessness: “many of us would like magical solutions, worse yet, drastic ones, in the face of a historical condition that demands it , to pacify, educate and keep Mexico healthy … And he concludes, by placing his trust in his commander, Secretary of Defense ,Sandoval: “That is why I recognize that the high command today holds the very high responsibility of keeping the country united ; to contribute to its pacification as soon as possible, to do everything with the lowest social cost, and utmost efficiency ”.

That is to say, they tied up the tiger with the “hope of change”… But they still did not “pacify it”, as they usually do, killing, disappearing, although they try to continue doing it, like silencing Samir Flores who resisted the Thermoelectric plant in Morelos … That is why they fear, and some “reckless” like Gaytán Ochoa express their panic.

And there are other compelling reasons for the armed forces not to launch a coup adventure. First: in Mexico, there has been no military rebellion since 1938 and none has been successful since 1921. Second: the international context. The Mexican military understands very well the consequences that direct participation in coup d’états and heading governments had for their colleagues in other Latin American countries. In Argentina the popular rebellion of 1982 overthrew the military coup of 1976 , and its generals were sentenced to life imprisonment. In Chile, the current mass rebellion aims to settle scores with Pinochet’s followers …

Currently in Mexico, who could be behind coup projects? Donald Trump: who has achieved from AMLO and Ebrard even more than what he has demanded? Oligarchs like Slim, Bailleres, Salinas Pliego, Larrea … who have all the official policy at the service of their interests? Who now, together with Romo Garza are “respectable and necessary businessmen”, the ones that were previously known as “mafia in power”? Do these capitalists and transnationals even have any reasons to conspire , who unlike “El Chapo” and the chapitos, have been for decades ,members of  the “select club” of those who traffic and exploit “within their law” and today have the exalted Armed Forces  and  National Guard to protect their businesses?

These are the gross contradictions in the political behavior of the president. If a coup today has no chance of achieving its ends, why does he agitate with a coup danger now? Does he want to divert attention from the “tied up tiger”?  A blackmail message to the 30 million, who after almost a year of government are disappointed because they do not see their “hopes for change” realized?

But lets suppose that at some future time that danger exists. How does AMLO plan to defend the will for change and justice of broad sectors of the working people? Prioritizing and empowering the military, as he has done by changing the Constitution so that they can repress all over the streets of Mexico? Mobilizing and arming “the support of a free and conscious majority, fair and loving of legality and peace”, to prosecute all murderous and corrupt military or surrounding himself with ‘’conservative generals and their hawks”? For now we only see the president meeting every morning with generals, admirals and police.

Let us not forget that the retired General Gaytán Ochoa, was Deputy Secretary of National Defense and that retired General Rodríguez Bucio, current  Chief National Guard and so many other Army generals and Navy admirals, were part of the high ranking military responsible for murders, disappearances, torture and rapes during the PRIAN governments. And, although they claim to defend the Mexican flag, they are all ideological children of the United States Army , School of the Americas . Like General Homero Mendoza Ruiz, Chief of the General Staff of SEDENA, who on October 3 “confessed” his bitterness to representatives of the United States Embassy, ​​the DEA and the US Department of State: “We are in a very strong process of decay, however the Mexican soldier raises up, strives to satisfy all the requirements that the Executive Power demands”.

Translated by Blas (Corriente Obrera Lit-ci)